American Axle Accelerates Past Forecasts: Sales Surge 5% Amid Optimistic FY24 Outlook

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. AXL reported a fourth-quarter adjusted loss per share of $(0.09), while the street estimated a wider loss of $(0.19).

Quarterly sales of $1.46 billion beat the $1.42 billion estimate. Revenues rose 5% year over year.

Sales for the fourth quarter of 2023 were favorably impacted by volume and mix, partially offset by the UAW work stoppage, the company said in a press release.

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $169.5 million, or 11.6% of sales, higher than $157.7 million, or 11.3% of sales, in the year-ago period. 

Adjusted free cash flow for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $4.5 million as compared to $99.0 million for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Outlook: For FY24, American Axle is targeting sales in the range of $6.05 billion-$6.35 billion (estimate: $6.18 billion), with adjusted EBITDA in the range of $685 million-$750 million.

American Axle expects North American light vehicle production of approximately 15.8 million units in FY24.

The company sees a gross new and incremental business backlog launching from 2024 – 2026 at approximately $600 million in future annual sales. 

American Axle plans the launch cadence of the three-year backlog to be approximately $300 million in 2024, $175 million in 2025, and $125 million in 2026. 

Electrification mix approximates 50% of the company’s new business backlog versus 40% in the prior backlog (2023-2025). 

Price Action: AXL shares are trading lower by 1.93% to $8.385 on the last check Friday.