S&P Futures & Big 10 Analysis - Week of Feb 6, 2012

Jobs, jobs and more jobs. Friday's unemployment data revealed that United States unemployment fell from 8.5% to 8.3%. Who really cares if it is because the participation rate has declined or not. We are only concerned with what the market does when the news hits the tape. The fact remains the same, the data shows marked improvement in the United States unemployment rate. As a result, S&P futures marched to their highest close (1339.00) since last July after reaching a high of 1342 late in Friday's session. Friday's high, 1342 will be one of the key levels for the week in order to determine whether or not this impressive rally can continue. The 2011 high of 1356.50 would be the next major resistance level. When looking for support, Friday's intraday low of 1333.25 will surely be tested, and below that major support is at the 1317.00 (Thursday's low) - 1320.00 level (Friday's Globex low). Exxon Mobil

really did not participate in the rally after barely meeting Wall Street's earnings estimates. Weakness in the crude oil market had a negative impact on XOM's price as well. The retreat was halted at 83.19 on Thursday, after testing support at 83.50 on Tuesday and Wednesday. If XOM can clear major resistance at 85.50 it should be able to make a run at the 52 week of 88.23. Fairly mild week for Apple

. After making a low at 445.39 on Monday, well above major support at 443.14, it was off to the races. Making new all time highs on 3 of the 5 trading sessions during the week. Finally topping out at 360.00 on Friday and closing at 359.68, thus providing the only trade-able levels on the upside. For those looking for a selloff in this monster, good luck. The only slightly negative technical aspect of this rally has been the contraction of the average daily range over the last five sessions. Perhaps some profit taking is taking place. For longer term investors, move those sell stops up to 355.00 to protect your profits. International Business Machines

continued its assault on the all time high of 194.90. High Frequency Traders stepped in a bit early, at 194.80, to thwart the attempt on the size at 195.00. The ensuing selloffs could not penetrate the major support at 191.00. With a close of 193.64, IBM is poised to test that all time high once again and perhaps on its fourth attempt will be able to break through. Next stop, 200? Chevron Corporation

has made five higher lows in the past five trading sessions. This formation bodes well for the bulls as shorts are upping their bids to cover and new money is attempting to establish positions. Bottoming out on Monday at 102.18 and steadily grinding higher the rest of week seemingly unaffected by XOM numbers and crude oil selloff. This normally volatile stock has had moderate ranges as of late and really nothing stands in the way of 108 on the upside for this issue, nor 102.18 on the downside. Microsoft

finally eclipsed the 30 level Friday and closing at 30.24. Its highest close since May 2010. For the move higher to be confirmed, MSFT needs to hold 30 for at least three consecutive closes. Next stop on the upside would be the late April 2010 highs from 31.25-31.58. Longer term, 35 may be on the horizon, and that would only be roughly a 50% retracement from the all time high of December 1999- 53.97 down to the March 2009 low of 14.97. General Electric

is still flirting with 19.00. It did manage to close at 19.02 on Friday, but was unable to sustain 19.00 on any other close this week. Perhaps some news or analyst upgrades or downgrades will push this issue below 18.69 or above 19.27. Sell at the 18 puts and 21 calls as you desire (but who wants to with such meek premiums), GE seems destined to be around 19 for awhile. Proctor & Gamble

was the big loser on the week for the Big 10. After an onslaught of downgrades last week, more jumped on the bandwagon this week. Trading almost 2 points lower this week, in a strong market, emphasizes the sector rotation out of defensive issues and into technology and financials. Until PG can make a similar formation on the downside as it did when it topped out at 67 on the upside, buyer beware. Major resistance in this issue has been lowered to 64.00 from 65.00. From a weak defensive issue (

) to an extremely strong one, Johnson and Johnson

. After matching the December 27 high of 66.32 Wednesday, JNJ could not even close once over 66 during the week. Support has gradually been moving up from 64.34 to 65.00, but if the street mounts an attack similar to the PG scenario, those levels could easily go by the wayside. A string of closes over 66.00 would signal a move to the July 2011 high of 67.98, but the stock would have to chew through a plethora of sellers, the entire way up. AT&T

remains range bound. After testing 29.00 early in week, value investors began to nibble at this defensive issue during the remainder of the week. During Friday's session, T was able to cross the 30 threshold but was unable to close above it. Perhaps this issue is migrating to the early January high at 30.68, but first it needs a string of closes over 30 to confirm the next leg up. Since Monday's low at 29.02, T has made four consecutive higher lows, with 29.86 being Friday's low. Perhaps buying dips is the play for T until this string is broken. After failing to breakout at the 22.00 level earlier this month, Pfizer

failed to break down under 21.00 this week. After trading down to 20.80 on Thursday PFE recovered to settle at 21.20 versus last week's close of 21.58. Focus on Thursday's and Friday's high at 21.25-21.31 to gauge if the next move will be higher to test the 22.00 level once again. On the downside, expect the bids to mount from Friday's low of 21.05 down to the weekly low of 20.80. In closing, follow through above 1342.00 early in Monday's session will be critical for the rally to continue. More times than not, strong moves on Friday can mark the high or low for the week, and provide for interesting set ups the following Monday. Either a key or reversal after a failure of 1342.00 is on the horizon, or the more likely continuation of the strong upward trend. With most of the earnings announcements already being released for the quarter, there is not much in the way to derail the long term bullish trend.