For the first time in the 2024 presidential cycle, Donald Trump ceded the lead to President Joe Biden in the key swing state of Pennsylvania, a new poll found.
Presidential Election: In a ”too-close-to-call” hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup, Biden took the lead over Trump by a margin of 49% to 46% in Pennsylvania, the Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters in Pennsylvania released Wednesday showed.
The survey solicited responses from 1,680 Pennsylvania self-identified registered voters from Jan. 4-8, 2024.
The choice of candidates was along party lines. Democrats backed Biden by a 96%-4% margin and 89% of Republicans chose Trump as opposed to 7 who supported Biden. Trump held an edge among independent voters, with 45% supporting him versus 44% who backed Biden.
Quinnipiac’s October poll in the state showed Trump ahead with a 47%-45% margin against Biden. In June Trump and his successor received the support of 47% and 46% of the respondents, respectively.
In a five-way hypothetical contest including independent and Green Party candidates, Biden pushed ahead with 41% support. Thirty-nine percent of the respondents threw their weight behind Trump, while Robert Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 11% and 4% support, respectively.
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Primary Race: The outcome of the primary appears to be almost sealed, with Quinnipiac’s poll finding Trump leading the Republican presidential primary with 61% support among registered GOP voters. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley stood second, receiving 14% support, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 10% support.
Meanwhile, 34% said they would likely change their choice of candidate if the candidate they are currently supporting was not a winner in one of the early primary states.
Biden had an overwhelming lead of 77% among registered Democratic candidates for getting the party’s nomination. Author Marianne Williamson was a distant second with 12 percent support.
Biden’s job approval rating was a net negative 18%, with 40% approving, 58% disapproving and 1% offering no opinion.
When provided with a list of 11 issues and asked which is the most urgent one facing the country today, 24% picked preserving democracy, 23% said border security and 15% chose the economy.
Why It’s Important: Swing states are key battleground states that can decide the fate of the election. The results in these states are too close to call and could swing in either direction, prompting the parties to invest time, money, and energy to gain an edge in these states.
“Pennsylvania, so crucial and so close, again takes center stage as the swing state with the electoral heft to decide the election,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
A “Swing State” poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in partnership with The Telegraph between Dec. 28-30 showed that Trump led Biden by 40% to 39% in Pennsylvania.
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