Michigan, a pivotal swing state, appears poised to favor Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, despite recent reports suggesting Trump personally called state election officials in 2020, urging them not to certify Biden’s victory.
Trump Leads in Michigan: In a hypothetical one-on-one match-up, a Glengariff Group poll revealed that 47% of Michigan voters surveyed backed Trump for a second term, while 39% chose Biden.
The statewide poll, commissioned by Detroit News and WDIV-TV, involved 600 likely general election voters and took place between Jan. 2-6, 2024. Three percent favored another candidate, and 11% remained undecided.
Expanding the Field: When other candidates were introduced into the poll, Trump’s lead over Biden increased by approximately 12 points. This marks the first time Trump has taken the lead in Michigan over the likely Democratic nominee before an election, according to Richard Czuba, the founder of Glengariff Group.
”If I were a Democrat in Michigan, I would be breaking the emergency fire alarms in the White House and demanding to know what the plan is for Michigan,” he said. “Because these numbers are very bad for any incumbent of any party.”
Biden’s Challenges: The majority of respondents felt it was time to move beyond Trump or Biden. However, negative sentiments toward Biden surpassed those for Trump. Only 17% believed Biden deserved a second term based on his first-term record, compared to 33% supporting a second chance for Trump. Additionally, 77% preferred a different leader than Biden, while 62% favored someone other than Trump.
The age factor is affecting Biden’s approval, with respondents citing concerns about his age, general competence, and mental acuity.
Workaround for Democrats? Despite the challenging landscape, the poll suggested a potential Democratic path to victory in Michigan. In a hypothetical match-up between Trump and the state’s Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Whitmer held a four-point lead, with a margin of 49%-45%. However, Whitmer has pledged allegiance to Biden and intends to complete her term until 2026.
California Governor Gavin Newsom, another Democrat, performed better than Biden in a hypothetical matchup with Trump but still trailed the GOP candidate, with 40% of respondents favoring Newsom compared to 45% for Trump.
Significance of Poll Results: These poll results align with a recent Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll in six swing states, which showed Trump leading Biden by two points in Michigan. Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 154,000 votes or three points. Notably, 58% of respondents in the Glengariff Group poll indicated that a Trump criminal conviction wouldn’t impact their vote, while 28% stated it would make them less likely to vote.
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