Donald Trump holds an edge over President Joe Biden in each of the six swing states, as revealed by a new “swing state poll” released on Monday.
Biden Vs. Trump: If Trump and Biden were the candidates for their respective political parties in the election set for Nov. 5, 2024, the former had the biggest lead of 11 percentage points over Biden in Florida, according to a “Swing State” poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies in partnership with The Telegraph between Dec. 28-30. The survey also considered independents and third-party candidates.
A sample of 6,029 voters across the six swing states — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania — were contacted for the survey.
Trump led Biden by a margin of 41%-35% in Arizona, 45% to 34% in Florida, 42% to 34% in Georgia, 39% to 37% in Michigan, 37% to 33% in North Carolina, and 40% to 39% in Pennsylvania. Redfield & Wilton noted that Trump’s lead over Biden in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania had slightly narrowed from the November survey results.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy as an independent introduced an element of uncertainty, as he polled between 6% and 11% of the votes in the swing states.
The former president’s dominance in the swing states contrasts with the 2020 election results when Biden won in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while Florida and North Carolina went to Trump.
”Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s candidacy may do more to help Donald Trump than Joe Biden,” said Redfield & Wilton, reasoning that more people who voted for Biden in 2020 said they would choose Kennedy than those who voted for Trump in the previous election.
Kennedy Jr. originally announced his candidacy as a Democrat and then withdrew his nomination to contest as an independent.
Key Election Issues: The main election issue for voters in the swing states was the economy, while abortion was cited by voters in five of the six states. Immigration was mentioned as the second most important electoral issue for voters in Arizona.
This potentially explains the positive results for Trump. An FT-Michigan Ross poll suggested that respondents drawn from Republican voters across the nation saw Trump as better positioned to handle the economy. About 60% of all respondents disapproved of Biden's economic handling.
Biden’s Unflattering Approval Rating: Redfield & Wilton’s survey found that Biden’s net approval rating was negative in all six states. The net approval rating was less negative at -4 in Michigan, while in the rest of the states, it ranged between -10% to -16%.
Voters also gave poor ratings for Biden’s performance as the president, which in turn is a function of how the president handled the economy, healthcare, environment, immigration, and foreign policy.
On the economy, net disapproval of the Administration's performance ranged from as low as -8% in both Georgia and Michigan to as high as -17% in Pennsylvania.
”Despite impressive economic growth figures and an unemployment rate of only 3.7%, voters continue to give the Administration poor ratings for its economic performance, with the rosy picture of the overall state of the economy conflicting with their own personal circumstances,” Redfield & Wilton said.
It noted that a majority of voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as well as pluralities in Georgia and North Carolina, said their financial situation has worsened in the past year.
Why It’s Important: Swing states are states that are too close to call. These states have in the past swung back and forth between Republicans and Democrats in recent years and are often referred to as "battleground states" as candidates typically double up campaign efforts there to gain an edge.
The 2024 presidential election kicks off with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire Republican primary on Jan. 23. Super Tuesday, when a majority of states will hold primaries and caucuses, falls on March 5 this year. Alabama, Arkansas, Alaska, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia are among the states where elections will be held on this date.
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