North Korea is reportedly planning a test launch of a ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland this month, amplifying the already strained relations between the two countries.
What Happened: Kim Tae-hyo, South Korea’s Principal Deputy National Security Adviser, who arrived in the U.S. for a meeting of a bilateral nuclear strategy group, refrained from elaborating on the intelligence assessment, Bloomberg reported.
"There is a possibility of North Korea launching an intercontinental ballistic missile in December," Tae-hyo said.
North Korea, under Kim Jong Un‘s rule, has typically conducted its ICBM tests near Pyongyang’s main international airport, a site closely observed by U.S. spy satellites. If conducted, this test will likely serve as a show of North Korea’s advancing nuclear arsenal capabilities.
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The last ICBM test by North Korea took place in July, involving a new, solid-fuel Hwasong-18, which had the most extended flight time of any missile in the country’s arsenal. The missile seemed built to carry multiple nuclear payloads, thereby increasing the odds of at least one bomb evading interceptors.
Still, it remains unclear if North Korea’s ICBM warheads can dodge interception and survive reentry into the atmosphere to strike their targets. This uncertainty significantly escalates what needs to be offered to convince Kim Jong Un to reduce his weapons stockpile.
Why It Matters: Despite North Korea's increasing reluctance to engage in dialogue, the US continues to favor diplomatic talks. A State Department official confirmed the U.S. commitment to diplomacy with North Korea. "We will continue to encourage diplomacy with North Korea. That has been our policy all along," said Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the State Department.
Meanwhile, if elected President in 2024, Donald Trump might allow Kim to retain North Korea’s nuclear weapons while proposing financial incentives to inhibit the production of new ones. This potential shift in U.S. policy could have significant implications for regional security and the global non-proliferation regime.
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