iPhone 14 Pro Models Preorders Reflect Loyal and Sticky Customers Amid Economic Slowdown, Apple Analyst Says

Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweeted key takeaways from Apple Inc AAPL iPhone 14 first weekend online pre-order survey and analysis.

Pre-order results were good for iPhone 14 Pro, neutral for Max Pro, and bad for two standard models versus iPhone 13 series.

Though the iPhone 14 series product mix improves and the iPhone 14 Pro Max pre-order is better versus iPhone 13 Pro Max, the pre-order result is currently neutral to Apple. 

The analyst saw a growing likelihood of cutting orders for iPhone 14 and 14 Plus (accounting for about 45% of the overall iPhone 14 shipments).

He suggested investors watch Pro models' primary beneficiaries recently, who may beat seasonality in 1Q23 thanks to more shipment allocation of Pro models and higher component prices. 

Revenue from the iPhone business will likely decline significantly in September or October for suppliers who are not the significant beneficiaries of Pro models.

The delivery time of more than four weeks may reflect good demand, the analyst noted. The delivery time for iPhone 14 Pro Max and 14 Pro exceeds four weeks.

iPhone 14 and 14 Plus will be in stock on launch day, reflecting lackluster demand, he found. The pre-order result for iPhone 14 and 14 Plus is worse than iPhone SE 3 and iPhone 13 mini.

The iPhone 14 Plus, or the replacement for the iPhone 13 mini, saw poor pre-order results.

The delivery time of the iPhone 14 Pro Max beats that of the 13 Pro Max. The delivery time of 14 Pro was about the same as 13 Pro. The delivery time of iPhone 14 and 14 Plus models was shorter versus iPhone 13 and 13 mini.

The pre-order result for Pro models reinforces Apple's numerous loyal and sticky customers amid the slowing economy, he noted. Still, it does not indicate Apple will increase orders of Pro models at once. 

Apple may cut iPhone 14 and 14 Plus shipment forecasts for November and beyond within a few weeks lest their demand does not gain traction.

The current pre-order result, strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, will likely last until at least November. 

On September 7, Apple showcased its new Apple iPhone 14 series with new emergency SOS via satellite and no more sim trays.

Price Action: AAPL shares traded higher by 2.67% at $161.61 on the last check Monday.

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