US Stock Futures Flatline On Inflation Data Worries; Bond Yields Slip While Gold And Oil Surge: Analyst Says 'Momentum Is Still There' For Bull Run

Zinger Key Points
  • The Goldilocks scenario for the economy and markets continued to play out nicely in Friday’s labor market report, says Jeremy Siegel.
  • The economist sees the year-over-year core consumer price inflation rate to slow to 3.7% in March.

Traders are bracing for a lackluster Tuesday, going by weak stock futures, as they navigate conflicting signals. Though lower bond yields could be encouraging, rising commodity prices may dampen sentiment ahead of Wednesday’s crucial inflation report.

Analysts remain optimistic about corporate profits despite the market’s sideways movement. LPL Financial‘s Jeffrey Buchbinder predicts a 3-4% upside to current estimates, potentially pushing S&P 500 earnings growth to about 6% for the quarter. He attributes this growth to strong economic momentum and AI investment.

Futures Performance On Tuesday ( as of 6:30 a.m. EDT)

FuturesPerformance (+/-)
Nasdaq 100-0.08%
S&P 500-0.02%

In premarket trading on Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY edged down 0.05% to $518.45, and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ slipped 0.09% to $440.21 according to Benzinga Pro data.

Cues From Previous Session:

U.S. stocks went about in a lackluster fashion on Monday before closing mixed as elevated bond yields kept traders nervy about interest rates. While the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended marginally higher, the broader S&P 500 Index and the 30-stock blue-chip average, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, settled marginally lower for the session.

Small-caps were stand-out performers, as they advanced strongly.

IndexPerformance (+/-)Value
Nasdaq Composite+0.03%16,253.96
S&P 500 Index-0.04%5,202.39
Dow Industrials-0.03%38,892.80
Russell 2000+0.50%2,073.71

Insights From Analysts:

The equity market rally has further legs despite the sideways movement seen in recent sessions, said Jeremey Siegel, Emeritus Professor of Finance at the Wharton Business School and Senior Economist to WisdomTree. “We believe that this bull market in equities is not over. The trend of equity prices is upward, and the momentum is still there,” he said.

Commenting on the March non-farm payrolls report, Siegel said, “The Goldilocks scenario for the economy and markets continued to play out nicely in Friday's labor market report.” “The unemployment rate and jobless claims moved to the center of our sweet spots—not too hot or cold.”

As far as the inflation data for the week is concerned, the economist sees the year-over-year core consumer price inflation rate slowing to 3.7%, marking the lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic began and down from 3.8% in February. The economist sounded a word of caution about rising commodity prices.

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick pointed to another positive historical trend in a post on X on Monday. Only 10 times since 1950, the S&P 500 was up 25% in 100 trading days. Nine out of the 10 times, the market was higher a year later and the average gain was 13.2%, he said.

Upcoming Economic Data:

The Treasury will auction three-year notes at 1 p.m. EDT.

See Also: Best Futures Brokers

Stocks In Focus:

Commodities, Bonds, and Global Equity Markets:

Crude oil futures continued to push higher and closed in on the $87-a-barrel mark on Tuesday and gold’s record run continued, with the yellow metal approaching the $2,400 level. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury eased below the 4.4% mark.

Bitcoin BTC/USD reversed course and was down over 2% over the past 24 hours.

Among the global equity markets, most Asian markets advanced, led by Japan, although the underlying mood reflected caution. The strength was achieved on the back of a rally in metal prices amid hopes of a global manufacturing rebound. Indian, New Zealand, and South Korean markets, however, bucked the downtrend. European stocks were moderately lower in early trading as the markets in the region paused for a breather after Monday’s strong rally.

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