Inflation Day. Feds Have More Work To Do

Good Morning Everyone!

Inflation:

+8.3% YoY in August. Higher than +8.1% expected.  

Average interest rate of savings account in America: 0.06%.  

Do with this what you want.


Prices as of 4 pm EST, 9/12/22; % YTD


MARKET UPDATE

Market has rallied on:

  1. Peak inflation

  2. Ukraine

  3. Resilient U.S. consumer according to MasterCard SpendingPulse

But interest rates continue to trend higher at the same time (usually moves in opposite direction)

CPI year-over-year

  • June 9.1% highest since 1981 (40+ year high)

  • July 8.5%

  • August 8.3% inflation dropped less than expected (8.1% expected)

Core CPI

  • Up 6.3% versus 5.9% in July

10yr 3.4% moved from 3.3% to 3.4% after today’s inflation data

Federal Reserve meeting

  • Next week (Sept. 21)

  • 75-basis point increase in the bag

  • Federal Funds Target Rate Range 2.25% to 2.5%

  • New expected Range 3.0% to 3.25%

US$ 109

C$ 76

VIX 24

Crude 87  -0.5%

  • Supply constraints vs. China/U.S. recession fears

  • U.S. Strategic Reserves at lowest level since 1984

  • Versus

  • China 3-day Festival holiday trips fell by 16.7%

  • Tomorrow: U.S. Department of Energy report

Emmy Awards

  • HBO took home the most Emmy Awards last night

  • 38 wins including Succession and White Lotus, up from 19 wins last year

  • Netflix NFLX at #2 with 26 wins, down from 44 last year

Meta META

  • This is the opportunity ahead of Zuck (Value Stock)

  • Close the 10-to-1 gap.

  • According to WSJ:

  • Users cumulatively spending

  • TikTok 197.8 million hours a day

  • Reels 17.6 million hours a day

Earnings

  • Oracle ORCL - stock flat, building cloud but no EPS upside

CRYPTO UPDATE

Institutional adoption

  • Fidelity considering Bitcoin BTC/USD trading on its brokerage platform

  • Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME launching ether options

Coffee & NFTs

  • Starbucks’ SBUX new NFT-based loyalty rewards program

  • Built on Polygon MATIC/USD PoS network

  • “Starbucks Odyssey” - waitlist open

Digital asset flows

  • Total outflows = $62.7 million

  • 5th consecutive week of outflows

    • 5-week total = $99 million

    • Relatively small

  • Weak volume at 46% of year average

  • Contrarian inflows out of Europe ($7 million)

  • Altcoins minor inflows

Posted In: contributorsInflationmarket updateCryptocurrencyNewsMarkets

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