Copper Up 25% From the Lows

Copper has been on the move since July, slowly creeping to the upside and under the radar of many traders. The actions by the Fed have made interest rates the hot topic in 2022 and this trend will continue at least through the first half of 2023. But I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: watch out for copper. 

This metal is seen as an economic indicator for global growth and tends to lead equities when a bottom may be near. This time around it is no different. Consider the backdrop of conditions that could act as a catalyst for the price to advance. 

First, and the most confusing in my opinion, is the China turnaround story. After nationwide protests against the CCP’s “Zero COVID” policies, among other domestic issues, China has made an abrupt reversal when it comes to policy. Reducing or eliminating quarantine restrictions, opening travel, and even removing testing requirements which was the foundation of the policy. I’m not sure if these changes in policy were due to the government being “empathetic” to those protestors or the simple fact that multi-national companies are now implementing strategies to geographically diversify their manufacturing processes. Either way, change is occurring.

China has some economic issues as it tries to recover from these COVID policies, as well as geopolitical tensions. The real estate market is nothing short of a disaster, but the Chinese government is committed to providing support to avoid a financial crisis.

They want expansion, and they will get there by doing what they do best: infrastructure spending. Industrial metals like copper will be a direct beneficiaries of this expansion strategy. At this rate, it’s only a matter of time before China steps on the gas.

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