Trump's Tariff Refund Could Cost US $10 Billion With 2% Month-End Rebalance Impact On Equities In Case Of An Appeal: 'Uncertainty Is Back Front And Center'

The Federal Court’s decision to strike down President Donald Trump‘s tariffs could have a widespread effect on the economy, stock market and individual companies, which were starting to settle with the idea of higher duties.

What Happened: Considering the same level of imports from 2024, the Kobeissi Letter has calculated a rough amount of $10 billion in tariff revenue that the U.S. must have collected since April 2, so far.

This includes the 10% baseline tariff on all countries as well as the higher rates imposed on select countries.

Thus, if the Federal Court orders are upheld despite the Trump administration’s appeal, the government would have to refund an amount of around $10 billion to its trading partners.

However, any judgment via the appeal process could come by mid-to-late June 2025, predicts Craig Shapiro, a macro strategist at Bear Traps Report.

“If they are granted the stay, they get to keep collecting the tariffs during the appeal process, says Shapiro and “If not, they are kinda screwed on all subsequent negotiations with trading partners and will have that huge hole in the budget process that was meant to help pay for tax cuts.”

Additionally, in another X post, he explains that the appeal process will induce more uncertainty, which already existed because of the tariff regulations and the tax bills. This will eventually impact corporate strategy, as there would be no clarity.

“We can assume all trade negotiations and deals are off the table and uncertainty is back front and center. Corporates are really gonna sit on their hands now,” he said.

Meanwhile, Marko Kolanovic, the former chief market strategist and co-head of global research at J.P. Morgan, said that the court ruling blocking Trump's global tariffs is positive for stock market bulls.

However, he warned that Trump's possible escalation, alongside a month-end index rebalancing that could impact markets by up to 2%.

Why It Matters: Tariffs, which were enacted by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a move that could reshape future U.S. trade policy, were invalidated by the Federal Court on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, economists like Peter Schiff agreed with the court decision and said that “if the House Republicans want to impose tariffs, let them vote to enact them.”

Aaron Rubin, the CEO of a warehouse management software company, ShipHero, also highlighted that the court’s judgment will prevent the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) from charging reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl related duties as well.

He said this would allow the de minimis program again, which allows duty-free entry for shipments under $800.

The Trump administration filed an appeal against the ruling in minutes, according to a Reuters report.

Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF QQQ, which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, jumped in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.86% to $592.66, while the QQQ advanced 1.37% to $526.03, according to Benzinga Pro data.