Who Will Be The Next Speaker Of The House? Here's What The Betting Odds Say

Zinger Key Points
  • Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been seen as the frontrunner, but failed to get the necessary 218 votes.
  • This marks the first time in 100 years that it took more than one ballot to complete the task.

The 118th Congress convened on Jan. 4, 2023 and has already made headlines for its failure to come to a decision on the next Speaker of the House. Here’s the latest.

What Happened: Republicans took control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 election and will not have majority control of the House. The election for a new Speaker of the House to replace Democrat Nancy Pelosi began Tuesday, but after six rounds of voting, no decision has been made.

Congressman Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been seen as the frontrunner for many months, as the party's former Minority Leader in the House.

Although, McCarthy failed to get the 218 votes needed to win the election, instead coming as close as 201 votes in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds of voting.

Several Republicans shifted support to other candidates, including Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), who had 20 votes in the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds.

The Democrats nominated Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) who received 212 votes, with unanimous support from his party.

If enough Republicans vote “present,” Jeffries could become the next Speaker of the House, despite the Democrats not having a majority in the House.

It is also worth noting that the next Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress, which could make things interesting if other names are nominated.

This marks the first time in 100 years that more than one ballot has been required to elect the next Speaker of the House. Nine rounds were needed in 1923. Back in 1856, 163 rounds over two months were completed to name the next Speaker of the House.

Related Link: Kevin McCarthy Still Not Secure In House Speaker Position As Congress Vote Moves Forward, What Can This Mean For Biden's Agenda? 

Betting Odds: Betting on political outcomes is not allowed at many U.S.-based sports betting exchanges.

One place that does offer wagering is PredictIt, an outcome-based website, that pays out $1 for successful outcomes. The odds for the next House Speaker have been highly volatile in the last two days.

At the time of writing, the current odds on PredictIt are:

  • Steve Scalise (R-LA): 44 cents, up 8 cents today
  • Kevin McCarthy: 33 cents, down 12 cents today
  • Elise Stefanik (R-NY): 8 cents, up 2 cents today
  • Jim Jordan (R-OH): 5 cents, down 5 cents today
  • Hakeem Jeffries: 3 cents, no change
  • Donald Trump: 2 cents, no change

McCarthy was the favorite on Dec. 31 at 73 cents, with strong odds on the site to be named the Speaker of the House.

Betting odds on Oddschecker show that the odds changed several times already on Wednesday. The current odds at the time of writing are:

  • McCarthy: -150
  • Scalise: +200
  • Jordan: +1000
  • Stefanik: +1600
  • Jeffries: +2500
  • Trump: +3300

With odds of -150, McCarthy has implied odds of 60% to become the Speaker. Despite still not getting the title after six rounds of voting, McCarthy saw his odds improve from -120 earlier in the morning (54.5% odds).

Scalise at odds of +200 has implied odds of 33.3% to win the Speaker of the House vote.

Odds for former President Donald Trump improved from +5000 to +3300 on Wednesday and the implied odds went from 2% to 2.9%. No one has nominated Trump for the title, but as mentioned above, the next Speaker of the House does not have to be a member of Congress.

Read Next: 10 Best Stock Traders In Congress In 2022 

Photo: courtesy of Shutterstock.

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Posted In: Sports BettingPoliticsGeneralByron DonaldsCongressDemocratsDonald TrumpElise StefanikHakeem JeffriesHouse of RepresentativesJim JordanKevin McCarthyNancy PelosiPredictItPresident Donald TrumpRepublicansSpeaker of the HouseSteve Scalise
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