The 2024 presidential election is less than 10 months away and voters could be faced with a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, which saw Joe Biden defeat Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States.
National polls of registered voters continue to show a close race between the two candidates, but one candidate has dominated in recent weeks.
What Happened: For many months, Biden and Trump have been the front-runners for their respective parties ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. The Republican frontrunner also saw rival candidates Vivek Ramaswamy and Ron DeSantis drop out and endorse him. This leaves only Nikki Haley currently running against Trump for the GOP nomination.
The most recent Morning Consult poll of Republican voters showed Trump with a record tying 63-point lead over Haley. It also showed Trump posted 81% of support among Republicans, setting a new record since polling began and after other candidates dropped out.
Trump has had a lead of 50 points or more over his Republican opposition in several consecutive weeks. In hypothetical matchups with Biden in the national election, the two candidates have remained close until last week.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select between the two candidates.
In this week's poll, Trump received 44% of the vote while Biden received 42%. Nine percent selected "Someone Else" and 5% selected "Don't Know."
This marked a gain of two percentage points for Biden and a loss of one percentage point for Trump. The three-point swing in Biden's favor comes after Trump had a three-point swing in each of the last two previous polls.
Independent votes, who could decide the election, selected their 2024 picks as the following, with last week's results in parentheses:
- Joe Biden: 30% (28%)
- Donald Trump: 42% (38%)
- Someone Else: 17% (22%)
- Don't Know: 11% (12%)
The poll found that 88% of Republican voters selected Trump, which was down two percentage points from last week's results. It also found that 84% of Democratic voters selected Biden, which is up two percentage points from last week's poll.
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Why It's Important: The latest poll shows a sharp turnaround for Biden, who was five points behind Trump last week.
Last week's five-point lead saw Trump's largest lead in head-to-head polls against Biden dating back to 2017, according to Morning Consult.
Over the past 18 weeks, Biden tied with Trump five times, was ahead of the former president four times and ranked behind the former president nine times.
In the latest Quinnipiac University national poll, Biden holds a six-point lead over Trump (50-44 percent) among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup.
A big concern for voters remains the economy, which ranked ahead of national security and healthcare according to the poll.
Morning Consult reports that the share of voters who said the economy was "very important" ahead of the election was the highest it has been in 10 months. Based on the results of the poll, voters see Biden's handling of the economy low.
Critics have blamed Biden for not doing enough to help consumers who are struggling with higher prices and living expenses.
It’s worth noting that, under Biden, the U.S. economy grew 3.1% in 2023; Trump’s economy grew 2.3% in 2019 (before the Covid-19 pandemic).
Biden also recently highlighted the stock market's all-time highs. The S&P 500 gained 37.4% during his first year in office, which was the best one-year market return under a president since Harry Truman in 1945.
In 2022, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of over 19%, representing the largest annual drop since 2008.
During Trump's four years as president, the S&P 500 had average annual gains of 14.5%. And the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up a total of around 67% during the four years under Trump, making it one of the best four-year returns for the S&P 500 in recent history.
While Biden can point to higher stock market prices and record peaks during his tenure, the stock market's overall performance and annual average returns under Trump still surpass those during Biden's time in office.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, the economy and stock market returns are likely to become key topics of discussion. If the economy remains a key issue for voters for the 2024 election, past results may tip the scales in Trump's favor.
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