The 2024 presidential election could end up being a rematch of the 2020 election race, which saw voters choose between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Currently serving as the 46th president, Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
A weekly poll showed a potential matchup between the two past presidents is fairly even among voters ahead of the 2024 election.
What Happened: President Biden has been the favorite to win the Democratic Party nomination in the 2024 election. Biden’s lead will likely grow in the party with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently announcing he would no longer run as a Democratic candidate, instead choosing the third-party or independent route.
While this could be good news for Biden in the Democratic primary race, Kennedy’s third-party decision could take potential votes away from both Biden and Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
If Biden wins the Democratic nomination, he will likely face off against Trump in the general election. Trump has been dominant over Republican candidates in recent polls and has a 45-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
The weekly Morning Consult poll asked registered voters who they would select in hypothetical elections of Trump vs. Biden and Biden vs. DeSantis.
In this week’s poll, Biden received 43% of the vote compared to 41% for Trump. Eleven percent said they would vote for someone else and 5% said they were unsure who they would select.
This marked an improvement for Biden, who was ahead of Trump by one point in the last poll and found himself tied with the former president two weeks ago.
In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, Biden won with a 42% to 39% advantage. Twelve percent said they would vote for someone else and 7% said they were unsure who they would vote for.
While Biden kept a three percentage point advantage over DeSantis, both candidates gained a point from last week. More voters were confident in backing one of the candidates over being unsure or wanting to vote for someone else.
Why It’s Important: After being tied with Trump, Biden is back on top in the hypothetical poll over the former president for two straight weeks, with the lead growing once again.
Over the past four weeks, Biden has been tied with Trump twice and ahead twice.
Since tracking began, Biden has led Trump in all but three polls, with one poll having Trump take the lead and the two recent ties.
Biden has often led Trump by one to two percentage points, with the matchups remaining close.
Six weeks ago, Biden had a three-point lead over Trump in one of his biggest advantages in recent months, before seeing momentum shift towards Trump in the weekly poll.
Biden had also been seeing lost ground against DeSantis in the polls in recent weeks. After commanding a four or five-point advantage over the Florida governor for weeks, the lead is now stuck around two to three points.
Next week’s poll could provide more details on how Biden and Trump are being liked or disliked by the public. Trump traveled to court once again earlier this week for his civil fraud trial in New York.
Biden appeared on “60 Minutes” on Sunday. The news program, which aired on Paramount Global PARAPARAA owned CBS, aired after polling was conducted for this survey.
Biden spoke in support of Israel and Ukraine during the interview and also traveled to Israel this week amid the ongoing Middle East conflict. Next week’s poll could show if he gains or loses support based on his international relations and policies.
Democratic California Gov. Gavin Newsom has been considered a potential candidate to run against Biden in the 2024 election by some experts but has publicly said he’s not running.
A planned debate between DeSantis and Newsom that will air on Fox News in November could be a precursor to a potential run by Newsom depending on support and reception from the event. The debate between the two governors of rival parties is being called a “Red state vs. Blue state debate.”
The latest betting odds for the 2024 election at sportsbooks show Trump as the favorite to win the presidency with Biden trailing close behind. Outside of the two major contenders, potential Democratic candidates Newsom and Michelle Obama rank third and fourth.
Photos: Shutterstock
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