An expert has voiced that fears of China’s economic decline are “utterly premature,” asserting that investing in China presents “enormous advantages.”
What Happened: In a recent op-ed for The Washington Post, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, highlighted Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Li remains confident in China’s potential despite recent economic, demographic, and military challenges.
Li acknowledged the decline in China’s economic growth, which has dropped to just over 5%, with some estimates suggesting it could be as low as 1.5%. The country’s youth unemployment rate is at 15%, and the real estate sector is in turmoil. China’s population has also decreased for the first time in 60 years.
Despite these challenges, Fontaine finds China to be a significant global player. Its economy, while slowing, still outpaced the U.S. last year. China also continues to lead in crucial technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing despite U.S.-led restrictions.
China’s military strength is also rising, with a growing defense budget and the world’s largest navy. Under President Xi Jinping, the country’s ambitions are expansive, focusing on regional dominance and international revisionism.
Fontaine emphasizes that while China’s economic struggles could eventually impact its military spending and global activities, there are currently no signs of this happening. He warns against relying on the hope of China’s economic downturn to mitigate its global influence, stressing that the U.S. must strengthen its position to counter China’s rise effectively.
Why It Matters: The Chinese economy has been under significant strain, as evidenced by a recent downturn in the stock market. The government is reportedly considering a $278 billion rescue package to stabilize the situation.
China’s tech giants, including Alibaba Group Holding Ltd BABA and Tencent Holdings Ltd TCEHY, have also been affected by the economic slowdown, leading to a significant reduction in external investments.
Furthermore, China’s post-pandemic pullback has dealt a $129 billion blow to the global tourism sector, with outbound airline capacity in 2023 at just 60% of 2019 levels. These challenges, combined with Li’s recent remarks, underline the complexity of China’s current economic situation and potential global impact.
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