Visa, Mastercard Exposed As More Travelers Cut Back On Overseas Plans

Bank of America Securities analysts conducted two global surveys between April 15–25 and June 3–13, gathering over 9,000 responses from travelers across the U.S., Mexico, Canada, the UK, Europe, and Japan to monitor shifting cross-border travel expectations in light of ongoing macro volatility.

The data indicates a rising number of international travelers plan to alter their travel plans over the coming year—though it’s acknowledged that stated intentions don’t always result in action.

In April, 44% of respondents said they would modify their cross-border travel within 12 months; this rose to 47% in June.

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Analysts noted that 89% of those planning to adjust travel in April pointed to concerns about government policies, such as tariffs or immigration. While travelers often cite geopolitical concerns like tariffs and immigration as their main reasons, there was a noticeable increase in price sensitivity, with 14% of June respondents pointing to cost, up from just 4% in April.

The analysts note this shift could potentially affect cross-border volumes for Visa Inc. V and Mastercard Inc. MA.

Specifically, when travelers opt to cancel trips altogether or substitute domestic travel for international plans—estimated at around 10% of total respondents—this could serve as a headwind for both companies’ high-yielding cross-border segments.

However, if travelers merely shift to a different international destination, the impact would likely be neutral.

Despite these signals, neither Visa nor Mastercard has flagged material cross-border weakness in their recent intra-quarter updates.

Visa maintains its fiscal second-half outlook at around 12% cross-border volume growth, consistent with March and April averages, while Mastercard continues to expect stable overall trends.

Given that a sizable portion of Visa’s and Mastercard’s international revenues are tied to cross-border travel—about 60–65%, mostly leisure-driven—BofA Securities analysts caution that any sustained softening in global travel demand could pressure growth in this category.

That’s especially true for U.S. inbound routes, which tend to be among the highest-yielding for both networks.

Visa and Mastercard remain geographically diverse, but potential pullbacks in these travel corridors, even if modest, could influence revenue trajectories in the quarters ahead, BofA Securities adds.

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