Target Q1 Earnings Preview: Will The Company Blame Tariffs, Price Increases After Trump Scolded Walmart?

Target Corporation TGT could provide a gauge for consumer spending and the impact of tariffs when the company reports its first-quarter financial results before the market opens Wednesday.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Target to report first-quarter revenue of $24.32 billion, down from $24.53 billion in last year's first quarter, according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company beat analyst estimates for revenue in the fourth quarter and has beaten analyst estimates in seven of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect the company to report first-quarter earnings per share of $1.65, down from $2.03 in last year's first quarter. The company beat analyst estimates in the fourth quarter and has beaten them in seven of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Analysts Are Saying: Analysts have been lowering their price targets ahead of the quarterly financial results.

Telsey Advisory Group analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated an Outperform rating on Target and lowered the price target from $145 to $130 ahead of the report.

The analyst said Target’s quarterly report could show weaker consumer spending, particularly in areas like general merchandise and discretionary items.

Feldman also cautioned about rising costs due to promotions, increased labor costs, higher-tech investments, and the impact of tariffs.

The analyst said Target gets around 50% of its cost of goods sold from within the United States, with around 30% from China. Target could use items like vendor negotiations, sourcing diversification and price increases to offset the tariff impact, he said.

Here are other recent analyst ratings on Target and their price targets:

Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, lowered price target from $140 to $102
Citigroup: Maintained Neutral rating, increased price target from $95 to $97
Piper Sandler: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $124 to $105
Bernstein: Downgraded stock from Market Perform to Underperform, lowered price target from $97 to $82
JPMorgan: Maintained Neutral rating, lowered price target from $120 to $95

Key Items to Watch: Tariffs remain one of the key items investors and analysts will be watching in Target's report and commentary. The report comes days after retail peer Walmart Inc WMT reported earnings per share that beat analyst estimates and sales that missed estimates.

Walmart said that price increases were coming soon to offset the impact of tariffs, a comment that upset President Donald Trump.

Target was one of several companies whose CEOs met with Trump to discuss the tariff impacts and potential for empty shelves for consumers.

After Walmart was pressured for its comments about increasing prices to offset tariffs, Target could be faced with the tough choice of upsetting Trump by raising prices or finding other ways to offset costs.

Target reported sales down 3.1% in the fourth quarter, with comparable sales up 1.5%. Based on a Placer.ai report, the company could be in for another down sales quarter.

The report said Target visits were down 4.1% in the first quarter, compared to a 2.4% drop for Walmart. Both figures are based on a year-over-year basis. Target’s visits were up 3.5% year-over-year in January, with declines of 9.1% and 6.5% in February and March.

In April, Target visits were down 3.3% year-over-year, compared to a 4.5% gain for Walmart.

The company trailed Walmart's year-over-year performance in each of the months except for January.

Target's previous guidance called for full-year sales growth of 1% with comparable sales flat. The company warned that the first quarter could experience year-over-year profit challenges due to tariffs, the timing of expenses and consumer uncertainty.

Investors and analysts will be watching to see if Target maintains its full-year guidance or pulls back due to a weak quarter and/or more uncertainty ahead.

TGT Price Action: Target stock was up 0.3% to $98.29 on Tuesday, versus a 52-week trading range of $87.35 to $167.40. However, it is down 28% year-to-date in 2025 and over 37% in the last year.

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