4 Energy Companies Project Tariff Impact, Analyst Raises Price Targets After Q1 Results

JPMorgan’s Carly Davenport revised her estimates for four major U.S. utilities following their first-quarter earnings.

The analyst cited new capital expenditure opportunities tied to load growth, evolving regulatory and legislative developments, and the broader impact of policy uncertainty and macroeconomic conditions.

Duke Energy DUK

• Duke Energy maintained a Neutral rating, while raising the price target from $122 to $125.
• The Charlotte, North Carolina-based company highlighted an incremental nuclear license renewal at the Oconee plant that it could operate into the 2050s, along with upgrades at existing gas, hydro, and nuclear units to add more than 1 gigawatts of capacity, Davenport stated.
• "Duke plans to file a merger application for the DEC and DEP utilities to streamline operations and realize cost efficiencies," she wrote.
• The company expects the tariff impact at 1%-3% of its five-year capital plan, the analyst added.

Sempra SRE

• Sempra reiterated a Neutral rating, while lifting the price target from $76 to $78.
• The San Diego-based company plans to add $12 billion to Oncor's capex plan, Davenport said.
• "In California, SDG&E and SoCalGas filed their 2026-2028 cost of capital applications with the CPUC and are anticipating a final decision by the end of 2025 with rates effective by the start of 2026," the analyst wrote.
• The company estimates tariff risk as 2%-3% of its base capital plan, given its diverse supply chain, she added.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

WEC Energy Group WEC

• WEC Energy Maintained a Neutral rating, while raising the price target from $101 to $106.
• The Milwaukee-based company is bullish about economic growth in its service territories, "especially around the I-94 corridor," Davenport said.
• "The company recently filed a new tariff with regulators in Wisconsin specifically for customers with 500 MW or higher loads," the analyst wrote.
• The company estimates a 2-3% cost impact from tariffs, she added.

Dominion Energy D

• Dominion Energy reiterated a Neutral rating, while lifting the price target from $60 to $61.
• Davenport said the company has 40 gigawatts of data center capacity in its pipeline and has not witnessed any slowdown in demand in its service territory.
• "The company's Virginia Biennial Review filing was submitted at the end of 1Q25, and through the filing, D also proposed a new rate structure for high-volume customers (such as data centers)," the analyst wrote.
• The Richmond, Virginia-based company indicated that it was difficult to quantify the tariff impact, as it would depend on the rates at the time of delivery, which is uncertain, she added.

At the time of publication on Tuesday:

• Shares of Duke Energyhad declined by 1.60% to $114.01.
• Shares of Semprahad risen by 0.44% to $76.03.
• Shares of WEC Energyhad declined by 0.65% to $104.29.
• Shares of Dominion Energy had declined by 1.06% to $54.30.

Read More:

• Duke Energy’s Segment Strength Fuels Q1 Beat, Reaffirms Guidance

Image: Shutterstock