Nvidia Maintains Lead As Key AI beneficiary, Analyst Boosts Estimates After Taiwan Event

Zinger Key Points
  • Nvidia analyst hail the stock as the primary AI beneficiary, contributing to potential catalysts for Arm and Micron.
  • Analyst flags AMD's robust roadmap with upcoming MI325/350/400 and MI400, adding HBM4 and MI350.

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh noted Nvidia Corp NVDA continues to see substantial opportunities with its Hopper platform and Blackwell B100/200 in the third quarter of 2024- first-quarter of 2025, and now 3nm/Rubin announced at Computex for 2026.

The analyst said Nvidia’s GB200 NVL72 full rack solution could drive a significant ASP boost in fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

Rakesh noted that Nvidia could ship 20-25K combined NVL racks in calendar 2025, delivering a potential upside to current estimates.

Fiscals 2026 and 2027 could see Nvidia ship ~25-30K NVL racks (or 30% of AI DC shipments as full Servers).

He also noted that Nvidia’s upcoming 10-1 share split, set for June 7, should create a more attractive entry point for retail investors and could provide additional share tailwinds. Rakesh reiterated a Buy rating on Nvidia with a price target of $1,275, up from $1,180, as he noted Nvidia continuing to dominate the AI accelerators and TAM growing >60% CAGR calendar years 2023–2027.

Rakesh maintained July quarter revenue and EPS at $28.2 billion and $6.27 while raising fiscal 2025 estimates from $115.4 billion and $25.70 to $120.4 billion and $27.17 (above consensus $120.1 billion and $27.06), fiscal 2026 from $147.7 billion and $32.31 to $159.6 billion and $35.54 (above consensus $158.7 billion and $35.38), and fiscal 2027 from $169.4 billion and $37.06 to $182.5 billion and $40.33 (consensus $181.0 billion and $40.83).

Nvidia announced Rubin 3nm GPU/2026 and Vera CPU for 2026 and 2027, adding HBM4 support while also doubling networking for Infiniband/SpectrumX/NVLink. According to the analyst, these will act as catalysts for Arm Holdings Plc ARM and Micron Technology, Inc MU.

Rakesh also flagged a robust Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD roadmap with upcoming MI325/350/400 and MI400, adding HBM4 and MI350, improving Inference performance 35x vs. MI300. AMD also noted a 33% Data Center compute share in the first quarter of 2024 vs ~8% in 2020 with Genoa tailwinds and Turin on deck. Rakesh reiterated a Buy rating on AMD with a price target of $215.

Rakesh had expected Intel Corp INTC to focus on AI PCs, Gaudi 3, Sierra Forest/Granite Rapids at its Computex speech on Tuesday. He reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $45.

Photo via Shutterstock

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