Fitch Ratings forecasts a rise in corporate defaults in the U.S. and eurozone due to stricter central bank policies.
High borrowing costs are anticipated to weigh on corporations through 2024 despite global optimism for a shift from central banks. The overall 12-month defaults among U.S. bond and loan issuers since the end of 2022 have jumped from 1.6% to 3.04% for leveraged loans and 1.35% to 2.99% for high-yield bonds. By 2024, Fitch predicts defaults could rise to a rate of 3.5%-4.0% for leveraged loans, and high-yield bond defaults may hit 5.0%-5.5%.
“Zombie firms” like WeWork, which filed for bankruptcy this year, are especially at risk due to a lack of sufficient cash reserves to meet borrowing requirements. Despite higher default rate predictions, Fitch does not foresee a U.S. recession in 2024.
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