Mobileye Vs. Tesla And NVIDIA: What's Common? Analyst Says Mobileye Can Exercise Pricing Power Like Others

  • Loop Capital analyst Ananda Baruah maintains Mobileye Global Inc MBLY with a Buy rating and raises the price target from $45 to $55.
  • The analyst's work suggests key MBLY trends continue to manifest, which indicates the company is tracking to guidance with the opportunity for Street numbers to increase through 2023. 
  • For context, the analyst likes investing in best-of-breed into strong, structural long-term societal trends and views autonomous and MBLY of this kind. 
  • Moreover, MBLY, already the 70% share leader in "Phase 1" (Eyes-on Hands-on ADAS Driver Assist, or L1/L2), offers robust capability across the autonomous spectrum and has an opportunity to become synonymous with autonomous.
  • MBLY is shifting from pure volume to a combination of volume and higher content per vehicle. In 2022 1/3 of the revenue growth came from higher ASP products. 
  • SuperVision with ZEEKR (China) is a significant catalyst for OEM interest.
  • For those concerned about macro, since 2018, MBLY revenue is up 170% vs. global production down 13%. 
  • The analyst continues looking for the average system price to increase. SuperVision is the main driver. 
  • For conservatism, MBLY assumes EyeQ volume is somewhat below customer commitment.  
  • For SuperVision, MBLY assumes 100% growth versus 96K units in 2022. 
  • The gross margin is ~35%, with a path to 50%. The analyst sees 2H2023 SuperVision revenue upside potential from recognizing Zeeker non-highway module recognition.
  • The analyst currently values MBLY, in line with current "unicorn" large-cap tech companies Nvidia Corp NVDA and Tesla Inc TSLA )) which are making a significant technological and societal impact. He believes MBLY can average ~35% revenue growth in coming years vs. NVDA at 25% (Street) and TSLA at 30% Street. 
  • Price Action: MBLY shares traded higher by 0.45% at $45.02 on the last check Wednesday.
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