Vail Resorts' Holiday Metrics Affected By Storm-Related Disruptions, Says Analyst

  • Stifel analyst Jeffrey A. Stantial reiterated a Hold rating on the shares of Vail Resorts Inc MTN with a price target of $261.00.
  • The analyst said conditions have been favorable to start the 2022/23 ski season, as a series of large storms has driven snowfall in most major U.S. ski regions well ahead of historical averages.
  • Given the easy comparison and favorable early season weather, the setup appears attractive into Friday's metric report, though the analyst sees several headwinds potentially weighing on early season results.
  • Stantial said heavy snowfall likely impacted travel plans during several peak weekends.
  • The well-discussed flight cancellations by Southwest Airlines LUV also impacted travel plans during the seasonally important holiday period, cited the analyst.
  • RelatedSouthwest's Holiday Crisis Could Cost It Up To First Nine Months Of FY22 Earnings, Analysts Say
  • While storm disruptions and flight cancellations were both key themes in the prior year period as well, the analyst expects these headwinds were normalized out in MTN's FY23 Adj. EBITDA guidance.
  • The analyst believes consumer visitation behavior in December may have been impacted by poor early-season conditions in recent years.
  • The analyst believes MTN's early-season results may prove more tempered than expected despite strong conditions to start the season and easy Y/Y comparisons.
  • While management has been vocal in a more late-season weighted bookings curve, and visitation appears to have firmed up into January, the analyst expects management to still opt to embed some conservatism into the FY23 guidance.
  • Price Action: MTN shares are trading lower by 2.16% at $246.80 on the last check Tuesday.
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