This Pneumococcal Vaccine Player Is The Top Pick For 2023 For This Analyst

  • Vaxcyte Inc PCVX is Needham's top pick for 2023 and has been added to the Needham Conviction list and raised the price target to $58 from $52.
  • The analyst writes that the positive initial VAX-24 Phase 1/2 results in October 2022 significantly de-risked the company's VAX-24 Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) lead program, thus increasing conviction for a similarly optimistic outcome for the upcoming initial Phase 1/2 data readout in adults 65+ y/o in 1H23. 
  • The analyst sees an upside into the $55-60/share range if the Phase 1/2 64+ y/o results are positive.
  • With a significant Pharma interest in the Pneumococcal Vaccine space (over $7 billion market dominated by Pfizer Inc's PFE Prevnar) and analyst views that VAX-24 has a potential best-in-class profile make PCVX a compelling M&A target. 
  • Needham models the Pneumococcal Vaccine market to reach around $11.7 billion by 2038. The base case assumes VAX-24/XP captures ~50% of the market at peak, with $6.1 billion in global sales.
  • Price Action: PCVX shares are down 0.65% at $47.64 on the last check Tuesday.
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