Analysts See This Alibaba Rival As Structural Share Gainer In China's eCommerce Industry

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  • Mizuho analyst James Lee reiterated Buy on JD.Com, Inc JD with an $82 price target.
  • JD beat profitability expectations meaningfully on improved efficiency and cost controls
  • The company improved the unit economics of core eCommerce while cutting back losses in CGB. 
  • Although the 4Q22 top-line growth would be soft compared to Street expectations due to elevated COVID cases and a slow macroeconomic environment, net income margins should expand by 60 bps due to disciplined expense management. 
  • The short-term setback is not structural and leaves FY24 EBITDA of 48 billion RMB unchanged. 
  • Lee maintained JD.Com, a top internet pick, as a structural share gainer in the eCommerce industry. 
  • Benchmark analyst Fawne Jiang reiterated Buy and price target to $100.
  • As China is experimenting with a gradual reopening, he anticipates case uptick and, consequently, logistics disruptions in the near quarters. 
  • As such, Jiang decided to take a conservative approach and lowered our 4Q22 and FY23 revenue estimates. 
  • Nevertheless, mobility improvement should work in favor of gradual macro recovery and boost consumption. 
  • JD’s revenue growth could reaccelerate through FY23. 
  • In addition, structural factors that drive sustained margin improvement should help protect earnings risks despite short-term revenue uncertainties. 
  • Price Action: JD shares traded lower by 6.66% at $52.34 on the last check Monday.
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