Delayed Generic Entry Is Positive For This Large Pharma's HIV Franchise Sales, Analyst Says

  • Gilead Sciences Inc GILD disclosed agreements with generic manufacturers that delay the U.S. launch of generic TAF products from 2025 to 2031/2032. 
  • SVB Leerink said this is positive for Gilead's long-term HIV sales and total revenue trajectories. TAF products, Descovy, Vemlidy, and Odefsey, generated $2.8 billion in 2021, the U.S. sales that the analyst previously expected to erode to over $100 million by 2031E. 
  • SVB models $1.3 billion 2031E US revenue for these products based upon more modest declines vs. its prior estimates. 
  • Related: Gilead's Lenacapavir Scores European Approval For Pretreated HIV Patients After Manufacturing Delays.
  • "Although we believe the products will not "cliff" mid-decade, we assume long-term erosion due to conversion to newer products (i.e., Biktarvy and Sunlenca [lenacapavir])," Our ex-US estimates remain unchanged, SVB writes. 
  • SVB maintains the price target at $68 and a Market Perform rating and expects higher spending to offset higher long-term revenues partially.
  • Price Action: GILD shares are up 0.48% at $65.50 on the last check Thursday.
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