With All Eyes On Lecanemab Read Out In Alzheimer's, Uncertainty Overshadows Biogen's Q2 Beat

With All Eyes On Lecanemab Read Out In Alzheimer's, Uncertainty Overshadows Biogen's Q2 Beat
  • Yesterday, Biogen Inc BIIB reported Q2 earningsNeedham writes that while operational performance looked good, uncertainty looms over the company's growth potential.
  • Lecanemab Phase 3 readout this fall should provide some clarity.
  • The high-risk, high-reward event will impact the company's medium-term growth prospects.
  • Needham still sees the base business plus risk-adjusted value of lecanemab as providing upside vs. current stock levels. 
  • It maintains the Buy rating but lowered the price target to $250 from $262.
  • Wells Fargo says that despite a solid beat and raise, the lack of the CEO search and go-forward strategy, $900 million litigation charge, and the risk to ~$2 billion of Tysabri sales contributed to the downside.
  • "In our view, lecanemab's Ph3 study would need to be a clean success for CMS to grant coverage, although secondary endpoints on cognitive benefit may be adequate for the FDA," writes Wells Fargo.
  • "We think CLARITY-AD has 50/50 odds, and we see the stock moving to $350 if the trial is successful," Wells Fargo added.
  • RBC Capital Markets writes that lecanemab Phase 3 data remains binary, and it continues to see a better-than-appreciated chance of success. Biogen reveals there was no interim analysis.
  • Pipeline reprioritization should bode well long term.
  • RBC revises the price target to $259 from $264.
  • Price Action: BIIB shares are up 2.98% at $213.68 during the market session on the last check Thursday.

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