Needham Previews Neurocrine's Upcoming Mid-Stage Data from Essential Tremor Study

  • Needham previews the upcoming Phase 2 data readout for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc's NBIX NBI-827104, a t-type calcium channel blocker in essential tremor (ET), by mid-2022. 
  • The analyst notes that though NBI-827104 lags behind its competitors, the market opportunity will be attractive given the total addressable market estimated at ~$13 billion, with no recently approved drugs in ET. 
  • The following data readout for Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC JAZZ and Praxis Precision Medicines Inc's PRAX second Phase 2 trials are expected in 1H of 2024 and 2H of 2022, respectively.
  • Commenting on efficacy, given a similar mechanism of action to Jazz's JZP385 and Praxis' PRAX-944, Needham looks for a change in TETRAS-ADL of 5-6 points and TETRAS-ADL of 4-5 points.
  • TETRAS is designed for the rapid and valid assessment of ET severity. 
  • On safety, JZP385 and PRAX-944 both had ~20% discontinuations.
  • The analyst says that if NBI-827104's safety profile can replicate its Phase 1 (~10% discontinuation). 
  • Needham expects a single-digit upside to shares on a successful study.
  • Price Action: NBIX shares are up 1.77% at $97.26 during the market session on the last check Monday.
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