Mirum Pharma's Lead Asset Has $450M Sales Opportunity, Raymond James Says In Bullish Initiation

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Inc MIRM recently went public, offering 5 million shares at $15 each.

With the IPO quiet period expiring, analysts are kicking off coverage of the stock.  

The Analyst

Raymond James analyst Steven Seedhouse initiated coverage of of Mirum with an Outperform rating and $28 price target.

The Thesis

Recent data from Mirum's lead asset maralixibat in the pediatric liver diseases Alagille syndrome, or ALGS, and progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis, or PFIC, suggest the mixed results from prior studies were a result of underdosing, Seedhouse said in a Monday initiation note. (See his track record here.) 

Maralixibat has no near-term competition in ALGS, the analyst said. The drug could launch as early as 2021 pending the FDA dialogue scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2019, he said. 

Raymond James' base-case scenario assumes a launch in 2023 following a Phase 3 study, Seedhouse said. 

Raymond James estimates peak sales of $370 million for maralixibat in ALGS. PFIC2 is likely to be a smaller opportunity, with peak sales potential of $80 million, the analyst said. 

Mirum has years of expertise in developing maralixibat and has been executing on its plan to efficiently advance the investigational asset toward the market, he said. 

"Mirum is a new issue with limited trading history and no approved assets, which justifies our Outperform rating (as opposed to Strong Buy)," Seedhouse said. 

The Price Action

Mirum shares listed at a discount to their offer price. The stock was advancing by 2.84% to $15.19 at the time of publication Monday. 

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