G1 Therapeutics Investors Recoil, Analysts Bullish In Wake Of Trilaciclib Results

G1 Therapeutics Inc GTHX reported positive top-line results Wednesday for its Phase 2 trilaciclib trial in small cell lung cancer.

What Happened

The candidate met primary endpoints in reducing the occurrence and duration of severe neutropenia. Compared to the placebo, it also allowed physicians to cut granulocyte-colony stimulating factor administrations by 45 percent and red blood cell transfusions by 58.7 percent, according to G1. 

At the same time, the placebo yielded superior results for objective response rate and clinical benefit rate, and it reported a comparable progression-free-survival rate.

“Remember that myelopreservation, not efficacy, was the primary endpoint,” H.C. Wainwright analyst Edward White said in a note.

Why It’s Important

The market reacted to the news with a sell-off, pressing the stock down 30 percent. Yet some experts rose to G1’s defense.

H.C. Wainwright projects 2026 revenues of $1.1 billion for trilaciclib and maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a $75 price target.

“The company's core competencies in drug development give us confidence in its early stage pipeline,” White said, noting the candidate’s potential in first-, second- and third-line SCLC, non-SCLC and metastatic breast cancer.

Raymond James initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and $66 price target.

“We think that the commercial argument for trilaciclib is currently underappreciated,” said analyst Dane Leone. The analyst forecast 2020 FDA approval for SCLC and triple-negative breast cancer, with 2023 sales striking $742 million. By 2027, they should bring in $2.2 billion, he said. 

What’s Next

G1 plans to meet with U.S. and European regulators in early 2019 to pursue the myelopreservation label. A regulatory update will follow in the second quarter, and G1 said it will strategize commercialization and market research throughout the year.

G1 shares were down 27.76 percent at $20.77 at the time of publication Thursday.

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