Is a recession quietly taxiing down the runway? In March, airfare prices dropped 5.3% year-over-year, the sharpest decline in nearly four years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The drop came as major U.S. airlines — including Delta Air Lines DAL, Southwest Airlines LUV, United Airlines UAL, and Alaska Airlines ALK — warned of weaker-than-expected demand, spurred by economic uncertainty, stalled business travel, and global volatility.
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Slashed Fares, Shaky Forecasts, And A Bumpy Ride Ahead
“Like others in the industry, we’ve seen lower fare levels being booked for April and throughout the summer,” Alaska Airlines CFO Shane Tackett told Reuters in an interview published last month. Though he emphasized that demand hadn't collapsed, Tackett confirmed the airline had to reduce fares to keep planes full.
Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, echoed the concern during the company's quarterly earnings call on April 24. "The economic uncertainty in the market has pressured demand and impacted America’s first-quarter results and second-quarter outlook," he told analysts, prompting the airline to pull its 2025 guidance.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said during the company's April 9 earnings call, highlighting measures taken in response to economic uncertainties. These include deferring aircraft deliveries and maintaining flat capacity growth for the second half of 2025. Bastian noted that corporate travel, which had been trending up 10% year-over-year at the start of 2025, has now flattened.
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Meanwhile, United Airlines took a split-scenario approach. In an investor update filed with the SEC in January, the airline issued two 2025 profit forecasts: one showing earnings per share between $11.50 and $13.50 if the economy holds steady, and another EPS of $7 to $9 in a recession. Starting in July, United plans to reduce domestic capacity by 4%.
This domestic softness comes at a time when business travel budgets are also tightening. The Wall Street Journal reported that companies like Invesco IVZ and Meta META are trimming non-essential travel due to cost pressures and diminished ROI from face-to-face meetings.
Despite the turbulence at home, premium and international travel segments are staying aloft. United Airlines saw a 17% jump in premium bookings and 5% rise in international sales. Delta is also leaning into loyalty programs and premium cabin sales.
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