Comerica Bank's Michigan Index Ticked Up

DALLAS, Dec. 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in September to a level of 105.6. September's reading was 22 percent higher than the cyclical low of 86.9. The index averaged 117.9 points for all of 2019, 0.7 points below the index average for 2018. August's index reading was revised to 103.0.

Our Michigan economic activity index increased for the third consecutive month in September. While the rate of increase was still strong, at +2.5 percent for the month, the three-month trend points toward smaller monthly gains ahead. In September, eight out of nine index components were positive including nonfarm employment, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), house prices, industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, total state trade, hotel occupancy, and sales tax revenue. The only declining element in September was housing starts. Due to increasing coronavirus infections this fall, Michigan has again tightened its social mitigation policies and this will drag on state economic performance in the fourth quarter. The most recent orders are effective from November 18 through December 9, closing schools, ending indoor dining at bars and restaurants and mandating working from home when possible. Governor Whitmer has asked the state legislature to approve a $100 million relief plan that would provide support to businesses and households. She has also asked for an extension of unemployment insurance benefits. Michigan's auto industry may also see reduced demand for new automobiles at year-end. The surge in coronavirus cases plus election uncertainty weighed on consumer confidence in November. We expect to see strong demand for new automobiles once confidence recovers as vaccines are distributed.

The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Incorporated CMA is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Commercial Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico. Comerica reported total assets of $83.6 billion as of Sept. 30, 2020.

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SOURCE Comerica Bank