2028 Election Poll Shows Vance, Buttigieg In Lead: Where Trump, Newsom, Harris Rank — And Betting Odds

Donald Trump has been in office for less than six months of his four-year term. That doesn't stop voters from looking to the 2028 election with polls and betting odds showing a mix of candidates for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

New 2028 Election Poll: A new 2028 presidential election poll shows the odds for candidates for both of the major parties with many question marks remaining, including if Kamala Harris will run again after losing to Trump in the 2024 election.

The Emerson College poll found the following top candidates for voters for the Democratic party.

• Pete Buttigieg: 16%
• Kamala Harris: 13%
• Gavin Newsom: 12%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 7%
• Josh Shapiro: 7%
• Undecided: 23%

Harris previously led the race in a November poll from Emerson College, for which voters wrote in their preferred candidate. Newsom ranked second at the time with 7% and Buttigieg was third with 4%. Undecided received a larger portion with 35% of the vote back in November.

On the Republican party side of things, here's how the latest poll came out for the potential candidates and the percentage of voters who selected them as the preferred party candidate.

• JD Vance: 46%
• Marco Rubio: 12%
• Ron DeSantis: 9%
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 5%
• Kristi Noem: 2%
• Nikki Haley: 2%
• Undecided: 17%

Vance led the way with a near majority in the latest poll. This was up from 30% in the poll back in November. Voters are becoming more clear on their picks with the number of undecided voters in the party dropping from 50% in November to 17% in June.

A generic election poll asked which party voters would likely side with in the 2028 election. That poll was split evenly: 42% Republicans and 42% Democrats with 16% undecided. In the poll, Independents were more likely to side with the Democratic Party at 37% to 29%, with 34% undecided.

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Betting Odds: Here are the June odds from BetMGM, which is a unit of MGM Resorts International MGM. U.S. residents can not currently bet on the election with BetMGM. Odds from January are listed in parentheses.

• JD Vance: +250 (+275)
• Gavin Newsom: +1,000 (+650)
• Alexandria Ocasio-Ortez: +1,400 (+2,500)
• Josh Shapiro: +1,600 (+800)
• Donald Trump Jr.: +1,600 (+3,300)
• Pete Buttigieg: +1,800 (+1,400)
• Gretchen Whitmer: +2,000 (+1,600)
• Michelle Obama: +2,500 (+800)
• Ron DeSantis: +2,500 (+1,000)
• Nikki Haley: +2,500 (+2,500)
• Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: +4,000 (+3,300)
• Kamala Harris: +5,000 (NA)

Vance's odds have improved in the latest betting odds and he remains the Republican frontrunner. Many Democratic candidates have seen their odds drop as no official candidates have entered the race and it is considered fairly wide open.

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Prediction Markets: Kalshi, which is legal to U.S. bettors, has several betting markets open for 2028, including the winning party, which candidates will announce they're running, vice presidential nominations, whether Elon Musk will support the Democrats and who will win the election.

Overall, the prediction markets shows the Democratic Party favored to win at 52% to 48%, compared to 51% to 49% in January.

Here are the betting odds on Kalshi for the GOP nominee for the 2028, with odds from January in parentheses:

• JD Vance: 41% (44%)
• Marco Rubio: 8% (5%)
• Tulsi Gabbard: 8% (Under 4%)
• Glenn Youngkin: 7% (Under 4%)
• Donald Trump: 7% (7%)
• Ron DeSantis: 5% (6%)
• Donald Trump Jr.: 5% (6%)
• Nikki Haley: 3% (Under 4%)

The 22^nd Amendment currently would keep Trump from serving more than two terms in the White House, but he's included in Kalshi's odds here.

Here are the betting odds on Kalshi for the Democrat Party nominee for the 2028 election, with odds from January in parentheses:

• Gavin Newsom: 15% (14%)
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 13% (8%)
• Pete Buttigieg: 9% (8%)
• Josh Shapiro: 7% (13%)
• Wes Moore: 7% (7%)
• Kamala Harris: 4% (5%)
• Gretchen Whitmer: 3% (6%)

Why It Matters: The 2024 presidential election could go down as the political event that changed prediction markets forever. Billions of dollars were wagered on Polymarket and CFTC-regulated market Kalshi.

Polymarket, which had many prediction markets for the 2024 election, does not currently offer 2028 markets. The decentralized platform allows users to deposit funds using USDC USDC/USD via the Polygon POL/USD network or directly from a crypto account with Ethereum ETH/USD. The platform will be closely watched in the coming months to see who takes the early lead in the 2028 election betting.

While Vance's betting odds and some of Rubio's betting odds may be reflective of voter polls listing the two as the top Republican party choices, betting odds don't match up with the latest Democratic voter poll.

Buttigieg and Harris rank as the top two candidates for Democrats in the poll, but in betting odds and prediction markets are priced lower than other candidates.

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