Israel-Hamas, Day 46: Temporary Truce, Hostage Release Loom; Israeli Stocks Recoup Losses Post-October 7

In what appears to be a major development in the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, a potential ceasefire and significant hostage release are reportedly close to being finalized on Tuesday.

This breakthrough could mark a pivotal moment in the hostilities that have lasted for more than a month.

Here are the latest developments:

Details of the ceasefire and hostage release: A political source revealed on Tuesday that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is expected to last five days, during which 40 children and 13 female hostages will be released from Hamas captivity. Multiple officials, in contact with CNN, confirmed this advancement in negotiations.

Optimistic remarks from Netanyahu: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement released by his office, expressed cautious optimism. “We are making progress… I hope there will be good news soon,” Netanyahu said, indicating that a positive outcome might be imminent.

War Cabinet meetings scheduled: Responding to these developments, Israel’s war cabinet is scheduled to meet on Tuesday. This will be followed by the security cabinet and then the government. Netanyahu’s office announced these meetings specifically to address the evolving situation regarding the hostages’ release.

Hamas Leader’s statement: Echoing a similar sentiment, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh indicated the proximity of an agreement with Israel. He noted in a statement to Reuters that Hamas conveyed its stance to Qatari mediators, signaling that a resolution might be close.

Gantz on hostage return: War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz underscored the critical need to bring back hostages taken by Hamas and other terror groups. He stressed the current period’s sensitivity for Israeli society, underscoring the high stakes involved in the negotiations, as the Times of Israel reported.

Qatar's role in mediation: Qatar, playing a crucial mediating role, expressed confidence in finalizing the agreement. Dr. Majed Al Ansari of the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs shared their optimism and readiness for a successful humanitarian truce, Al Jazeera reported Tuesday.

Market Reactions

The Israeli domestic stock market, as represented by the Tel Aviv 225 index, experienced a slight uptick of 0.11% on Wednesday, returning to levels last observed on Oct. 11.

The exchange-traded fund available to U.S. investors, focusing on Israeli stocks, the iShares MSCI Israel ETF (NYSE:EIS), which also takes into account the shekel’s performance against the dollar, has now rebounded to the levels it was trading at prior to the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7.

Over the past month, the standout performers have been high-tech companies, including Innoviz Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ:INVZ), Monday.Com Ltd. (NASDAQ:MNDY) and Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ:NVMI), boasting impressive returns of 40%, 28% and 26%, respectively.

Other regional stock indices showed a modest decline, reflecting a deteriorating overall risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes. The iShares MSCI UAE ETF (NYSE:UAE) and the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (NYSE:KSA) dipped by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. The iShares MSCI Qatar ETF (NASDAQ:QAT) experienced a 0.5% drop.