Nvidia Supplier Taiwan Semi's Global Expansion and AI Revenue Growth in Focus Despite Overbought Signals

The remarkable rise of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSM has brought its risks into sharper focus despite the enthusiasm surrounding its role in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

TSMC’s shares have soared over 110% since October 2022, mirroring gains of key client Nvidia Corp NVDA, buoyed by global excitement over AI.

Yet, AI’s contribution to TSMC’s total revenue was only 6% in 2023r, sparking speculation about future demand and its impact on TSMC’s valuation, Bloomberg reports.

Signs such as the stock’s prolonged presence in overbought territory and its significant premium over average analyst price targets suggest the rally might be overstretched.

Even Morningstar Inc. analyst Phelix Lee, who holds one of the highest price targets for TSMC, expresses concern over the sustainability of AI demand over the next few years, questioning the feasibility of continuous, high-level data center investments.

TSMC anticipates AI revenue growing at an annual rate of 50%, expecting it to represent a high-teen percentage of its total revenue by 2027.

The company is expanding its global footprint, with new plants in the US, Japan, and Germany, aiming to meet the surging demand for AI chips in data centers of leading tech firms like Amazon.com Inc AMZN and Microsoft Corp MSFT.

Reports indicated that Apple Inc AAPL is advancing its chip technology by developing processors leveraging the innovative 2-nanometer (nm) fabrication process from TSMC.

However, geopolitical tensions, particularly between Washington and Beijing, and uncertainties surrounding the 2024 US presidential election could influence TSMC’s growth trajectory.

There’s also speculation on whether the strong order book reflects genuine end-demand for AI products or is driven by American clients stockpiling inventory amid policy uncertainties.

TSMC and Samsung Electronics Co SSNLF are poised to receive substantial funds from the US under the 2022 Chips and Science Act, signaling a significant push by the US to bolster domestic semiconductor production.

Samsung is set to receive over $6 billion to extend its operations beyond the previously announced $17 billion project in Taylor, Texas, while TSMC will likely receive more than $5 billion, Bloomberg reports.