President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump are expected to win their respective parties’ primary races according to a slew of opinion polls, but results of a new poll released Wednesday revealed some interesting findings.
What Happened: Biden leads Trump by a margin of 50% to 44% among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, a Quinnipiac University poll showed. The results were based on a survey of 1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide held between Jan. 25 and Jan. 29. The respondents consisted of 696 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, and 693 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.
Biden’s performance significantly improved from Quinnipiac’s December poll, which showed 47% support for him compared to 46% for Trump.
The January poll found that 96% of the Democrats backed Biden compared to 2% who were not in his favor. The president also had majority support among independent voters, as he trumped Trump by a 52%-40% margin. Trump had an overwhelming support among Republican voters with a 91%-7% tally.
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Biden’s Stronghold: The support for Biden among women has widened, with the January poll returning a 58% to 36% margin in his favor, up from the 53% to 41% margin he had in late December. Trump’s support among men held steady at 53% to 42% in his favor, only slightly up from the 51% to 41% margin in December.
“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Multi-Party Fray: When independent candidates Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein were included on the ballot, Biden still led Trump, although with a smaller lead. Biden received 39% support compared to 37% received by Trump. Kennedy took away 14% of the votes, West 3% and Stein 2%.
When merely independent voters were accounted for, the five-way hypothetical race showed Biden led with 35% support. Trump, Kennedy, West and Stein took away 27%, 24%, 5% and 5% support, respectively.
Biden Vs. Haley: Biden faces a setback when he is matched up against former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. The former U.N. ambassador was backed by 47% of the respondents compared to the 42% Biden received. Furthermore, 53% of independents supported her, while only 37% backed Biden. The president, however, led Haley among both Republicans and Democrats, by a 79% to 4% margin and 53 to 37% margin, respectively.
A five-person ballot that included Haley as the potential Republican nominee tilted the scales in favor of Biden. Biden led with 36% vote followed by Haley (29%), Kennedy (21%), West (3%) and Stein (2%).
“In a head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to independents. Add third party candidates to the mix and her numbers slip in part because of her weakness among Republicans,” said Malloy.
In the two Republican presidential primaries held so far, Trump has emerged victorious, with the next results expected from South Carolina on Feb. 24. The Democratic primary in the state will take place on Saturday.
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