Donald Trump and Joe Biden are on a collision course for a 2024 presidential election rematch, and while the former maintains a slight edge, a recent poll reveals a glimmer of hope for the Democratic camp.
What Happened: In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, the latter has the support of 46% of the voters, one point more than Biden’s 46%, the results of the January Emerson College Polling national survey showed.
The poll was held on Jan. 26-29, 2023, and it surveyed 1,260 voters.
Since December, Trump has seen a one-point decline in support compared to a two-point improvement by Biden.
“Biden's approval among independent voters has seen a four-point improvement since December, rising from 33% to 37%,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
“Although still underwater, this reflects a positive shift. Additionally, his disapproval among independents has decreased from 52% to 45%.”
The views mirror the findings from the Gallup poll released last week. To improve his chances of re-election, Biden should work toward increasing his job approval rating to 50% in the fourth year of his presidency from 39.8% in the third year, the pollster’s analysis showed.
“The key to Biden’s winning reelection may lie more in convincing a larger share of independents that he is doing a good job and is deserving of a second term,” Gallup had said.
The Emerson College poll showed that Trump’s chances of victory over Biden improved when third-party candidates Robert Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein were added to the ballot. The tally was at 41% to 39%, in favor of Trump.
The former president’s lead expanded to five points if Biden, Trump and Haley were added to the ballot. Forty-two percent supported Trump, 37% backed Biden and 12% favored Haley, while 10% were undecided.
If the matchup was between Biden and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, the former had a one-point lead at 38%. But a sizable 25% of voters said they were undecided.
Trump, Biden Steamroll In Respective Camps: Biden garnered the support of 72% of Democratic voters in the party’s primary and 19% were undecided. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and author Marianne Williamson managed to get only 4% support each.
“Biden has successfully strengthened his support among Democratic Primary voters, with undecided voters decreasing from 30% to 19% and his share of support increasing from 63% to 72%,” Kimball said.
On the Republican side, 73% backed Trump to be their 2024 nominee and 19% supported Haley, with the suspension of campaigns by businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis benefiting the former. Trump’s support rose 13 points compared to a 10-point improvement seen by Haley.
"Haley's strong performance among certain demographics in New Hampshire, such as college-educated and older voters, does not appear to translate to the same level of support nationally," said Kimball.
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