Donald Trump faces a bevy of legal challenges, yet the former president exudes confidence in his ability to manage the economy better than other Republican candidates in the 2024 presidential primary, as revealed by a new poll on Sunday.
What Happened: Results from the FT-Michigan Ross poll, conducted between Dec. 28 and Jan. 2, showed that 67% of Republicans believe Trump would be the best GOP candidate for handling the economy. In contrast, only 9% and 8% expressed confidence in Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, respectively.
Seven percent chose businessman Vivek Ramaswamy as the one who can better handle the economy, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie received only 2% support.
The survey, which included responses from 1,000 registered voters nationwide, indicated that, overall, 36% believed Trump could best manage the economy, while 23% did not trust any candidate, and 11% did not know enough to decide.
Trump’s support is noteworthy given that 60% of all respondents disapproved of President Joe Biden’s economic handling.
A net 58% disapprove of Biden’s job as the president compared to a net 39% who approve.
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Americans Generally Pessimistic: A net 55% said they were managing to survive compared to a net 45% who said they were thriving. A net 71% held a negative view about the current economic conditions compared to a net 26% who were positive.
A net 53% said they were worse off economically, since Biden became the president, while a net 17% said they were better off. Fifty-two percent said Biden was doing little or nothing to improve economic conditions. When asked whether Biden’s economic policies, aka Bidenomics, have helped or hurt, a net 47% said it has hurt as opposed to 31% who said it has helped.
Notwithstanding the pessimism, the U.S. economy has held up fairly well under Biden. He inherited a COVID-19-stricken economy from his predecessor and GDP rose 5.9% in 2021 before slowing to 2.1% in 2022. In the first three quarters of 2023 GDP rose 2.2%, 2.1%, and 4.9%, respectively.
After a disappointing 2022, the financial markets also came back up strongly in 2023, with the S&P 500 Index, a broader market gauge, rallying over 24%. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY, an exchange-traded fund that tracks the S&P 500 Index, ended Friday’s session up 0.14% at $467.92, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The disgruntlement over Bidenomics is primarily due to inflationary pressure that rages unabated. Higher inflation eats away at income, leaving consumers with less and less to spend. People also worry over a potential hard landing, as the Federal Reserve, which is blamed for acting late in monetary policy tightening, has taken rates rapidly to a 22-year of 5.25%-5.50% in a span of a little over a year. The Biden administration has also been blamed for border infiltrations and its assistance to war-torn Ukraine.
Key Economic Issues: Eighty-five percent of the respondents picked inflation as one of the three issues causing strain on their personal finances. Inflation has remained elevated ever since the government lavished the public with stimulatory measures in the aftermath of COVID-19. After peaking at a 9%+ level in the summer of 2022, inflation has pulled back but remains above the central bank’s 2% target.
Personal income, rent, credit cards, and medical expenses were mentioned by 52%, 28%, 28% and 21% of the respondents, respectively.
Looking ahead, voters see inflation as a major issue that would hurt the economy over the next six months.
Why It’s Important: The 2024 presidential election kicks off with the Iowa caucuses to be held on Jan. 15, 2024, in which GOP voters will choose their party’s nominee for the 2024 election. The New Hampshire Republican primary will follow on Jan. 23.
In New Hampshire, although Trump leads, he is closely trailed by Haley, and independent voters will have a big say in the election results.
Trump will also be handicapped by his multiple legal cases. The Supreme Court is set to decide on whether his name can be retained on state ballots following efforts underway at some to debar him on the grounds that he instigated the Jan. 6, 2021 insurrection.
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