AMD To Surpass $2B GPU Revenue Target in 2024 - Analyst

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh recently hosted investor meetings with management at Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD.

The analyst notes that confidence and visibility into the MI300X ramp in 2024 is high, with upside potential to the $2 billion outlook likely. 

AMD management expressed high confidence in its $2 billion outlook for MI300 in 2024 and its ability to compete with Nvidia Corp NVDA, particularly on inferencing. 

AMD has good visibility into the ramp of MI300X next year, given seven- to eight-month lead times and POs in hand with firm visibility through the first half of FY24.

AMD indicated it is incredibly competitive on inferencing, given its higher HBM content. The upside to the $2 billion appears likely as AMD indicated it is not supply-constrained on its $2 billion outlook and has enough supply to support the upside. 

AMD provided additional color related to its over $2 billion GPU revenue target for 2024. 

AMD expects the share gain story of server CPU to continue, with strong Bergamo traction at Meta Platforms Inc META

While Intel Corp INTC has recently shown progress on the upcoming 18A process, AMD remains confident in the partnership with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co TSM and its manufacturing edges, from wafers to packaging. 

AMD projects the industry units to grow LSD% or flat, with ASP being a more significant driver of TAM growth. 

With PC correction largely behind, AMD sees continued share gains in NB and the launches of AI PCs to support 2024 growth. 

For PCs, with sell-in essentially matching sell-through now, AMD sees 1Q tracking more in line with seasonal trends while projecting to continue to gain share in 2024, particularly NB. 

For 2024, AMD believes the upcoming AI PC launches in 2025 would drive a new refresh cycle, and it has been working closely with Microsoft Corp MSFT on optimizing AI use cases. 

Price Action: AMD shares traded higher by 4.85% at $119.01 on the last check Friday.

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