Here's Why Raymond James Analyst Remains Bullish On Ulta Beauty

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  • Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong reiterates a Strong Buy rating on the shares of Ulta Beauty Inc ULTA with a price target of $600.
  • ULTA reported a big beat to end FY22 with F4Q EPS of $6.68, well ahead of Raymond James' estimate of $5.65 and the consensus.
  • Comparable sales were up 16% versus Raymond James estimate of +8.5%, and sales increased 18% versus the analyst's estimate and consensus +11%. 
  • The analyst said strength was broad-based, with each beauty sub-category and mass and prestige growing double-digits y/y.
  • Management introduced an FY23 outlook towards the upper end of its medium-term targets on comparable sales and ahead on margins, but it implies a growth deceleration after a very strong FY21/22, added the analyst.
  • The deceleration is attributed to challenging comps, an expectation for promotion to pick up that has yet to occur, heavier spending, and more volatile macros, even if it hasn't seen a slowdown and to the contrary, noted that momentum seen during the holiday continued into 1Q, remarked the analyst.
  •  While mindful of comps, macros, and other risks, the analyst thinks the muted guide sets FY23 up for the continued potential for beats and raises.
  • Innovation should continue to sustain demand across categories, the company's more than 40 million plus loyalty members provide an edge should the environment get more promotional, and a greater focus on luxury brands will benefit average ticket size, the analyst said.
  • Also ReadUlta Beauty Underpromises, Overdelivers: 4 Analysts Raise Price Targets After Q4 Print
  • Price Action: ULTA shares are trading higher by 0.84% at $524.31 on the last check Friday.
  • Photo Via Company
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