The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said in its 2022 World Oil Outlook that global oil demand is projected to increase from almost 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) in 2021 to around 110 mb/d in 2045.
The world economy is expected to more than double in size, and the global population rise by 1.6 billion between now and 2045, it said.
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The outlook also highlighted that primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by 23% in the period to 2045. The world needs to annually add on average 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to 2045, it added.
Oil prices rose over 1% on Tuesday as a weak dollar balanced the impact of increasing COVID-19 curbs in China. The United States Brent Oil Fund BNO closed 1.57% down on Monday while the Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF VDE closed 0.88% higher.
Oil’s Share: Oil is expected to retain the largest share in the energy mix throughout the outlook period, accounting for almost a 29% share in 2045. Other renewables — mainly solar, wind and geothermal energy – will expand by 7.1% per annum on average, significantly faster than any other source of energy.
The outlook projected that the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to remain the most important crude oil importing region throughout the forecast period, with imports rising by over 7.5 mb/d. India is set to be the largest contributor to incremental demand, adding around 6.3 mb/d to 2045, it said.
Energy Poverty: The report noted that all forms of energy will be needed to address future energy needs. “Energy poverty remains an issue throughout the forecast period, with a wide gap remaining between developed and developing countries,” it said.
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