Unimpressed Analyst Questions Ansys's New Forecast Over Durability, Industry Tailwinds

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  • Earlier this week, ANSYS, Inc ANSS held a virtual analyst day. 
  • Ansys clocked 6% revenue growth in Q2 to $473.9 million, beating the consensus of $467 million. EPS of $1.77 beat the consensus of $1.60.
  • After digesting the new 2025 targets and connecting with IR, KeyBanc analyst Jason Celino came away with three takeaways.
  • Firstly, he appreciated the 12% ACV CAGR target (an uptick from the previous 11% framework). But he questioned the implied acceleration of core-simulation market growth (8-10% from 7% previously).
  • Secondly, he believed investors should be happy with the Operating Cash Flow outlook, which implies a ~15% CAGR, and should outweigh the more muted implicit Operating Margin guidance commentary.
  • Thirdly, his view remained unchanged. While the new ACV and OCF growth targets were undoubtedly an uptick, he believed much of the Ansys story around growth durability and industry tailwinds from autonomy, electrification, IoT, and 5G remained unchanged.
  • He had a Sector Weight rating.
  • Price Action: ANSS shares closed higher by 1.58% at $284.57 on Friday.
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