Stephens Lists How Affirm Is Set To Gain From Amazon's Shopping Extravaganza

Stephens analyst Vincent Caintic expects Affirm Holdings, Inc AFRM to receive a vast GMV tailwind from incentives provided for using Affirm during Amazon.com Inc's AMZN Prime Day (July 12-13).
It includes $2 for scrolling through Affirm's hub and $25 credit for orders >$100.
He thought Affirm would have a large share of Amazon Prime Day sales for the credits alone, benefiting Affirm's Q1 GMV (ending September 30).
Amazon does not disclose its Prime Day sales, but news reports have pegged Prime Day sales at ~$8 billion - $11 billion.
Assuming Affirm finances 50% Prime Day sales, this would double his $5.0 billion Q1 GMV estimate and increase his FY23 annual estimate by 20%.
Assuming a $200 average Affirm ticket on $4.75 billion Prime Day GMV implies $641 million credits on 23.8 million transactions.
He saw investors value profitability over GMV.
Caintic reiterated an Underweight on Affirm with a price target of $18.
Price Action: AFRM shares traded higher by 12.22% at $19.29 on the last check Tuesday.

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