- Stephens analyst Vincent Caintic expects Affirm Holdings, Inc AFRM to receive a vast GMV tailwind from incentives provided for using Affirm during Amazon.com Inc's AMZN Prime Day (July 12-13).
- It includes $2 for scrolling through Affirm's hub and $25 credit for orders >$100.
- He thought Affirm would have a large share of Amazon Prime Day sales for the credits alone, benefiting Affirm's Q1 GMV (ending September 30).
- Amazon does not disclose its Prime Day sales, but news reports have pegged Prime Day sales at ~$8 billion - $11 billion.
- Assuming Affirm finances 50% Prime Day sales, this would double his $5.0 billion Q1 GMV estimate and increase his FY23 annual estimate by 20%.
- Assuming a $200 average Affirm ticket on $4.75 billion Prime Day GMV implies $641 million credits on 23.8 million transactions.
- He saw investors value profitability over GMV.
- Caintic reiterated an Underweight on Affirm with a price target of $18.
- Price Action: AFRM shares traded higher by 12.22% at $19.29 on the last check Tuesday.
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