EUR/USD Forecast: At Fresh Weekly Lows and Bearish, Break Below 1.0800 Likely

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0841

• US unemployment claims for the week ended April 10 came in at 5245K.
• Exit strategies and lock-down extensions under consideration in Europe.
• EUR/USD at fresh weekly lows and bearish, break below 1.0800 likely.

The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0816, a fresh weekly low, as speculative interest resumed buying the greenback on the back of persistent uncertainty and dismal US data. Signs of flattening coronavirus-related curves have continued to come from Europe, while Germany is discussing an exit strategy to its lock-down. However, the UK has extended it for at least three more weeks, while the infection keeps spreading in the US at an outrageous pace. Recession may not be yet here, but there are not many doubts most major economies are heading into it.

Germany reported March inflation this Thursday, which was confirmed at 1.3% YoY. The EU published February industrial production, which was down 1.9% when compared to a year earlier, slightly better than the 2.0% expected. The US has released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 10, which were worse than anticipated at 5245K although better than the previous weekly figure, which was upwardly revised to 6615K. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at -56.6 for April vs. the expected -30. Finally, Housing Starts in March plunged 22.3%.  This Friday, the EU will release the final version of March inflation foreseen stable at 1.1% YoY.  

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has briefly pierced the 61.8% retracement of its late March advance at 1.0830, now trading a handful of pips above it. The pair is at risk of extending its slump, as, in the 4-hour chart, its developing below all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining downward traction. The Momentum indicator heads firmly lower within negative levels, while the RSI hovers near oversold levels, all of which favors another leg south for this Friday.

Support levels: 1.0830 1.0800 1.0765

Resistance levels: 1.0860 1.0890 1.0925

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