Headline CPI in Line as Inflation Remains in Check

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The Consumer Price Index tracks the cost of living by measuring the changes in the price paid by consumers for goods and services. CPI is important because it tracks changes in purchasing trends and it shows inflation on the consumer level in the last month. With the economic volatility associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation, given a high growth economic environment. On the other hand, low or falling CPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown. Below is a list of today's headline reading compared to analyst estimates:
  • CPI MoM 0.0% vs 0.0% Est; Prior 0.3%
  • Core CPI MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% Est; Prior 0.2%
  • CPI YoY 2.3% vs 2.3% Est; Prior 2.7%
  • Core CPI YoY 2.3% vs 2.3% Est; Prior 2.3%
Since the Fed said they would keep interest rates low until 2014, the lower than expected core CPI figure should calm investors' fears of inflation and with it, the unlikelihood of a surprise rate increase by the Fed. According to the
Bureau of Labor Statistics
, The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was unchanged in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. The energy index, which had risen in each of the three previous months, declined in April on a seasonally adjusted basis and offset increases in the other major indexes. The gasoline index fell 2.6 percent in April and accounted for most of the decline in energy, though the indexes for natural gas and fuel oil decreased as well. The food index rose in April as five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in April, the same increase as in March. Increases in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, medical care, airline fares, new vehicles, and apparel all contributed significantly to the April increase. US equity futures saw an initial move higher and the US dollar Index lower after the 8:30 a.m. ET release. Currently, Dow Jones Industrial Index has given back some of its earlier gains, but is trading up about 60 points in the pre-market.

ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that CPI is a leading indicator for the US economy, you might want to consider the following trades:
  • Long currencies opposite of the US dollar, like the GBP or AUD. Since the Fed promised to keep rates low until 2014, this lower than expected reading in core CPI inflation should calm investors' fears of a rate increase as inflation remains in check.
  • Also, long pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer PFE or Mylan MYL as demand generally is inelastic with drugs.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that CPI is not a leading indicator for the US economy, you might want to consider the following trades:
  • Long Consumer Staple companies like Procter & Gamble PG and Colgate CL because even if inflation is higher, they still need to buy staple products like shampoo and toothpaste.
  • Also, short big-ticket appliance makers like Whirlpool WHR as demand is more elastic.
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
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