Ghost of Christmas Future: Half of Americans Fear Not Being Able to Afford Holiday Shopping

"'Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead', said Scrooge. 'But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me.'"
~Charles Dickens, from A Christmas Carol

While US retailers are hoping for a successful holiday shopping season, the Daily Mail's Meghan Keneally reported Monday that "half of Americans fear they won't be able to do their holiday shopping". Keneally: "One in five Americans lost a sizeable amount of their disposable income during the [Great Recession], leaving them financially vulnerable and without many options."

Keneally cited a CBS News poll that reports that 33 percent of Americans will not have enough money for holiday shopping. Owing to rising energy costs, stagnant incomes, and financial woes, half of Americans are now concerned that they will not be able to afford holiday shopping this year.

It would appear that the holiday season in the US is fast taking on a more somber air. And as the weather gets colder, the socio-economic environment in the nation may be getting colder as well. In Miami, Fla., hundreds lined up in Little Havana to receive food vouchers courtesy of the Latin American Chamber of Commerce. Those waiting were either unemployed or living on a fixed income.

While strong Black Friday and Cyber Monday numbers may have spurred some confidence in the markets at the start of the holiday shopping season, we have good reason to believe that the future may not be as bright as some hope. Marketwatch's Brett Arends had an interesting story Tuesday on 10 reasons why the global financial crisis is not yet over.

Among key pieces of information that are ominous for the future, Arends discussed how "the reports from northern Europe are absurd", "Italy is still in trouble", and how "China's real estate market is looking ominous". In light of Arends' analysis in terms of the prospects of the US going forward, Arends stated that "the US consumer is still broke" owing to consumer credit levels and a lack of disposable income. Arends: "If anything, [Black Friday Christmas sales] should make rational people more gloomy." Even further from credit, the unemployment situation in the US has not improved. Arends contended that the official jobless rate is "meaningless" while many Americans are leaving the workforce and/or are underemployed.  

Where investors are hungry for optimism and confidence, the market has appeared to satiate their hunger -- if only for the time being. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 400 points Wednesday on word that central banks would jointly add liquidity to the global financial system in order to ease the crisis. Even so, it would be unwise to lose sight of the dire state of the US economy going forward; in short, the situation is still quite gloomy and precarious. Even yesterday, my Benzinga colleague John Thorpe reported on how nearly a quarter of all housing mortgages in the US have negative equity, or are underwater.

Taking all of this economic information and financial data into account, it can be difficult to not be pessimistic in this economy. As much as many of us want to be optimistic about the economy, reality has a way of keeping our hopes in check. I think the current situation may portend a substantial change in American society's understanding of the holiday season. For a season that has become so commercialized through the years, the holiday season in the US may be approaching a state of de-commercialization -- the unwinding of the consumeristic rigmarole of the holidays.

Even back in July I discussed how one has to wonder about the future of Christmas gifts. Where things like books, CDs, and toys may be going out of style owing to developments in technology, societal changes, and a declining market, there are always things like gift cards, food, and alcohol. Food always makes for a good gift idea. Years ago as the economy began to take a dive, I figured that within a few years we would be giving each other food for holiday gifts rather than material items.

If this economic downturn does not improve and we are calling this "Great Recession" a "Global Depression" by the time next year's holiday season comes, we may very well be giving each other food for gifts during the holidays. And in all seriousness, does the average American really need another pair of shoes or a new coffee maker or one of those devices that poaches an egg while it toasts a muffin? As the statistics showed, 46 percent of Americans shopping on Black Friday were shopping for themselves, i.e. not holiday shopping. Midnight madness, self-gifting, pepper spraying merchandise, people trampling over each other -- this isn't about the holiday season anymore; this is about the American consumeristic culture being out of control.

If a mix of inflation, high unemployment, mild growth expectations (Okun's Law, anyone?), a credit crunch, and rising prices hits the American consumer throughout the year, then it's hard to see how the economy will be able to sustain a sector of the economy and a tradition based on disposable income. Heaven only knows what Christmas is going to look like a few years from now.

That being the case, perhaps the decommercialization of the holiday season in the US is long overdue. After all, the holiday season is supposed to be about remembering what we are grateful for and more spiritual aspects of life. Throughout history, various cultures around the globe celebrated during the middle of winter to give each other comfort through a cold and dark period in the year; the holiday season may be somewhat of a biological human response to the revolution of the Earth. Whether it was through huddling around a fire or cooking a roast or sharing a bottle of wine through a cold winter night, our ancestors found a way to get through the winter by having celebrations without rampant consumerism and materialism. Maybe that is how the holiday season should be...and will be in the near future if the economy does not improve.

In this light, if the holiday season is really more about spiritual introspection and soul-searching than consumerism, while we find ourselves living through an economic winter of our lives, perhaps a bit of soul-searching during the holiday season could do all of us some good.

• Go long on retailers like Macy's M, Dillard's DDS, and Kohl's KSS.

• Short the above, and take a look at Cost Plus, Inc. CPWM, Target Corporation TGT, and Costco Wholesale Corporation COST.