GBP/USD Forecast: Struggling Below 1.34 Handle, Focus On Carney's Speech

The US Dollar continued moving higher through the Asian session on Thursday, with the GBP/USD pair languishing near Wednesday's two-week lows. Yesterday's stellar UK CBI realized sales data, which revealed retail sales for October rose to the highest levels since Dec 2016, was negated by stronger-than-expected growth in US durable goods orders. Adding to this, hopes that the Trump administration may be making some progress on fiscal reforms supported the Greenback's recent rally and continued weighing on the major pair.

Currently trading below the 1.3400 handle, traders now await the BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech at a BoE conference in London. A confirmation that a rate hike is very much needed in the near future should provide a temporary boost to the British Pound. Later, during the North American session, the release of final US GDP print and the usual weekly jobless claims should also be looked upon for some impetus. 

From a technical perspective, short-term indicators have drifted into bearish territory and hence, a weakness below 1.3365-60 area should accelerate the slide toward 1.3320 support, marking a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.2774-1.3657 recent up-move. A convincing break below the mentioned support might now open room for extension of the pair’s corrective slide.

Conversely, any recovery attempt back above the 1.3400 handle is likely to confront a strong hurdle at an important confluence resistance near the 1.3445 region, comprising of a short-term descending trend-line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.