BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecasted a significant crypto asset firesale, driven by the upcoming Bitcoin BTC/USD halving and the Federal Reserve’s strategies.
What Happened: Hayes predicts a volatile period for cryptocurrencies in the latter half of April. He suggests that the Bitcoin halving and the Federal Reserve and Treasury’s strategies could fuel a massive crypto asset firesale, potentially depressing the market for several weeks. Hayes wrote this in a blog post on Apr. 8.
Hayes suggested that while the Bitcoin halving could boost prices in the medium term, it could also negatively impact crypto prices immediately before and after the event. He believes the halving is timed for when “dollar liquidity is tighter than usual.”
“… I believe Bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving […] It will add propellant to a raging firesale of crypto assets," Hayes said.
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Hayes also noted that the second half of April could be a “precarious period for risky assets” due to factors like U.S. tax payments removing liquidity, the Fed initiating Quantitative Tightening (QT), and the Treasury’s General Account (TGA) remaining unused.
After the Fed’s meeting on May 1, Hayes expects a slowdown in money supply tightening and anticipates the Treasury will infuse “most likely, an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump markets.”
Why It Matters: Hayes’ predictions come at a time when Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a year-to-date increase of over 61.55%, trading at $71,359. Hayes, who previously suggested caution before dismissing all meme coins as "stupid,” has also forecasted Bitcoin’s potential rise to a $1 million valuation.
Despite the predicted volatility, market analysts are forecasting a potential rally that could see Bitcoin’s value soar to new heights. However, the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving and the Federal Reserve’s policies on the crypto market remains to be seen.
Price Action: At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,122.10, marking a 0.69% decrease over the last 24 hours. However, it has seen a substantial 61.01% increase since the beginning of the year, as per data sourced from Benzinga Pro.
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