Jerome Powell Says Fed Doesn't 'Need To Be In A Hurry To Cut' Interest Rates: Odds Of June Reduction Jump In Prediction Market

Zinger Key Points
  • Key PCE data was reported Friday with the stock market closed.
  • A look at Federal Chair Jerome Powell's comments on the data.

The monthly personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report Friday showed inflation rising in the month of February, which could impact the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Here's what Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said Friday about the latest inflation data — and what could come next.

What Happened: The headline PCE price index was up 2.5% annually in February, higher than the 2.4% reported in January. The figure was in line with estimates.

Month-over-month, the PCE index rose 0.3%.

Personal spending in the report was up 0.8%, which was ahead of estimates and higher than the 0.2% increase reported in January.

The core price index was up 2.8% on an annual rate, also in line with estimates. This figure takes out food and energy prices, which are more volatile.

Powell said that the report won't lead to a rush by the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

"We don't need to be in a hurry to cut," Powell said Friday, as reported by Bloomberg.

Powell said the newly reported inflation data is "in line with our expectations."

Going forward, Powell said the Federal Reserve will cut rates when inflation is on track to hit a 2% goal laid out by the financial governing body.

"It's good to see something coming in in line with expectations."

Powell called the road to 2% inflation a "sometimes bumpy path" in his remarks.

Related Link: Sticky Inflation Persists: Fed’s Preferred Measure Climbs, Analysts Sound Off

What's Next: Estimates for rate cuts in 2024 by experts and industry analysts have been shifting based on recent inflation data. Most experts anticipate three rate cuts coming in 2024.

One big question remains: whether the first rate cut will occur in May, June or even later.

Crypto prediction market Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, the Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture, business and science.

A prediction market for when the first rate cut from the Federal Reserve will take place has attracted millions of dollars in wagers.

On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD or from crypto accounts.

Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option(s) that ends up being the winner.

The market for "Fed Rate Cut By…? Has the following options as of Friday, with the percentage odds of the event occurring listed. The odds as they stood prior to the Fed's March meeting are in parentheses.

May 1: 9% (10%)

June 12: 63% (52%)

July 31: 81% (78%)

Sept. 8: 86% (89%)

Nov. 7: 92% (90%)

Dec. 18: 92% (93%)

The latest inflation data has led to more crypto bettors wagering on a rate cut coming by June 12, with 63% betting on this date. The percenaget of people betting on a Fed cut by July 31 has also increased.

Based on comments from economists and the crypto betting market, June is the heavy favorite for a first rate cut.

Read Next: Fed Officials Confident Inflation Is Easing, But Want More Evidence Before Cutting Rates

Jerome Powell and Wall Street illustration. Photo: Federalreserve/Flickr Photo: Bylolo/Unsplash.

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Posted In: CryptocurrencyEcon #sTop StoriesEconomicsFederal ReserveMarketsFederal ReserveInflationInterest RatesJerome PowellPCEPolymarketStories That Matter
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