Even as Bitcoin nose-dived nearly 4% on Friday slipping down to $64,000 levels, the decline comes amid warnings from a pseudonymous crypto trader, who has indicated that the largest digital currency has officially entered the “danger zone,” a period historically associated with pre-halving price retracements.
According to Rekt Capital, “It's been two days since Bitcoin officially entered the ‘danger zone' where historical pre-halving retraces have begun.”
With the halving event approximately 26 days away, Bitcoin has seen a significant pullback of nearly 18% since last week.
The trader highlights the uncertainty surrounding whether the bottom of this retrace has been reached, but emphasizes the potential for further downside within this critical time window.
Drawing parallels with past cycles, Rekt Capital notes, “In 2016, Bitcoin performed its pre-halving retrace approximately 28 days before the halving.”
“In 2024, Bitcoin performed its pre-halving retrace approximately 32 days before the halving,” the trader added.
The analysis points out a pattern of initial strong reactions followed by further retracements, as observed in the 2016 cycle, suggesting that Bitcoin may need to maintain its current highs to avoid a repeat of past downturns.
Looking ahead, Rekt Capital speculates on the timing of Bitcoin’s next bull market peak, stating, “Bitcoin tends to perform a bull market top 266-315 days after it breaks its old all-time high.”
Given that Bitcoin broke its previous all-time highs last week, the analyst predicts the next peak could occur between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
Extending this forecast further, adjustments for the duration beyond old all-time highs could push the bull market peak to mid-December 2024 or mid-February 2025.
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