The race for the GOP nomination is down to Donald Trump and Nikki Haley for the 2024 presidential election.
Trump has won the first two states and is showing no signs of slowing down, but Haley remains committed to continuing her push in the race. Here's a look at the latest.
What Happened: Trump won the Iowa caucus in convincing fashion and went on to win the New Hampshire primary, securing the first two states on the 2024 election campaign trail.
The New Hampshire primary saw Trump get 54.4% of the vote and secure 12 delegates and Haley get 43.3% of the vote and secure 9 delegates. The earlier Iowa caucus saw Trump get 51% of the vote and earn 20 delegates. Haley placed third in Iowa with 19.1 of the vote and eight delegates.
The dominance by Trump in Iowa saw Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, who finished second and fourth respectively, drop out of the race and endorse Trump.
Haley is refusing to quit, telling an audience in New Hampshire.
"This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina," Haley said.
Crypto bettors are making wagers on whether Haley will stay in the race for the next month ahead of the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24, which could be the key point in Haley gaining momentum or Trump putting an end to her campaign.
Calling itself the world's largest prediction market, Polymarket offers betting on items in categories such as politics, Middle East, sports, cryptocurrency, pop culture and business. On Polymarket, users deposit to Polygon MATIC/USD using USDC USDC/USD and can deposit with Ethereum ETH/USD.
The platform, which cashes out winning wagers at $1 offers betting on whether Haley will drop out of the race before the South Carolina primary.
The betting market has $62,000 wagered and currently lists yes at 43 cents and no at 59 cents, implying odds of around 42% that Haley drops out before the South Carolina primary.
Related Link: 2024 Win For President Joe Biden Or Donald Trump Would Be ‘Threatening’ For Markets, Ray Dalio Says
What's Next: With Trump's early lead, several people have been calling for Haley to drop out of the race. Billionaire Andy Sabin, who is a Haley donor, told Fox Business that he thinks the candidate staying in the race could hurt her chances in the 2028 election.
"You have to know when to hold them. You got to know when to fold them. You got to know when to walk away. It's time for Nikki Haley to walk away," Sabin said, as shared by the New York Post.
Sabin said there's no upside in Haley staying in until the South Carolina primary.
"There's a tremendous downside. If you can't win your own state, there's no reason to go on."
Sabin said it could be "political suicide" for Haley to say in the race.
Haley has around a dozen fundraisers booked leading up to the South Carolina primary, according to the New York Post.
The presidential candidate is also putting millions of dollars into television ads, first targeting South Carolina.
"Biden too old. Trump too much chaos. A rematch no one wants. There's a better choice for a better America," one ad says.
Another ad highlights Haley's time in office as governor of South Carolina, turning it "into an economic powerhouse."
The Nevada Republican presidential caucus takes place on Feb. 8 along with the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24. The following month of March will see several Republican caucuses and primaries held in the early days all leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5, which marks the largest amount of delegates in one day up for grabs.
Sports betting is legal in many states, but election betting remains closed off to bettors through legalized sportsbooks in the U.S.
DraftKings Inc DKNG CEO Jason Robins previously told Benzinga he hoped political betting on presidential election would be allowed in the U.S. someday. DraftKings offers betting on the overall 2024 presidential election to bettors in Canada.
Polymarket could see increased attention for its political betting, which could become the biggest markets on the platform.
Betting on the Iowa caucus totaled over $4 million when factoring in the overall vote, who would place runner-up and the margin of victory. Betting on the New Hampshire primary passed $5 million.
The 2024 election betting has passed the prediction market for Bitcoin BTC/USD ETFs getting approved, which was previously one of the top betting markets of all time on Polymarket.
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